Today’s personal income and consumer spending data for June reaffirm our view that the reopening continues to drive a powerful #restart — and there’s still room to run. 1/4
In the #services sector, particularly #leisure and #hospitality — which bore the brunt of lockdowns and restrictions — the #spending splurge continues as consumers make up for lost time. But spending is still a little more than 3% below its pre-pandemic level in real terms. 2/4
On top, consumers still have a large war chest of accumulated #savings, a good share of which we expect to be deployed over coming quarters, further strengthening the restart. 3/4 Image
Yet you can only turn the lights on once. While we think there are still more to come on, strong growth is unlikely to be sustained once the restart completes. What lies beyond? Take a look at our midyear outlook for our view: ms.spr.ly/6019nor0F 4/4 Image

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More from @Jean_Boivin

18 Aug
Taper is coming soon but I definitely see no indication from #FOMC minutes that taper is coming as soon as #JacksonHole 1/5
The #FOMC minutes deliberately attempt to clearly divorce taper from the timing of #liftoff 2/5
The uncertainty on the taper timing is quickly shrinking to zero, so it’s not clear to me why there would be any drama left when it happens. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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