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Jean Boivin

18 Aug, 5 tweets, 2 min read

Taper is coming soon but I definitely see no indication from #FOMC minutes that taper is coming as soon as #JacksonHole 1/5

The #FOMC minutes deliberately attempt to clearly divorce taper from the timing of #liftoff 2/5

The uncertainty on the taper timing is quickly shrinking to zero, so it’s not clear to me why there would be any drama left when it happens. 3/5

The wide range of views on medium-term inflation among #FOMC participants is notable. 4/5

@federalreserve

Overall, broad @federalreserve policy normalization is squarely in the very slow lane. 5/5

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Jean Boivin

@Jean_Boivin

30 Jul

Today’s personal income and consumer spending data for June reaffirm our view that the reopening continues to drive a powerful #restart — and there’s still room to run. 1/4

In the #services sector, particularly #leisure and #hospitality — which bore the brunt of lockdowns and restrictions — the #spending splurge continues as consumers make up for lost time. But spending is still a little more than 3% below its pre-pandemic level in real terms. 2/4

On top, consumers still have a large war chest of accumulated #savings, a good share of which we expect to be deployed over coming quarters, further strengthening the restart. 3/4

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