Thread by @AuroraIntel

Thread: Al-Alam Claim, Mercer Street in response to Al-Dabaa Airbase?

Yesterday, in a odd silence from #Iran|ian media Al-Alam surfaced with a claim that the targeted attack against the Mercer Street Tanker off the coast of Oman was in response to an airstrike conducted…

by #Israel against Al-Dabba Airbase. But we need to look at the full timeline of events first to understand the full picture here.

On 19th July 2021 - SyAAD was confirmed to be active over Eastern Aleppo, near Al-Safirah. Satellite imagery several days later via @planet showed

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1418482657554534400

Two impacts noted just east of Aleppo itself. In the following days to this airstrike, members of #IRGC linked Fatemiyoun and a Local Hezbollah branch were confirmed to be killed in this airstrike.

https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1417483491206438928

On the eve of 21st July 2021 - confirmed reports of SyAAD activity of Homs countryside begun to circulate with reports of impacts in Al-Qusayr area (I’m getting to the Al-Alam piece I promise, bare with me). Satellite imagery the next day confirmed impacts in Al-Dabaa.

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1418183512960684033

In the next few days post strike, #Hezbollah’s Central Media confirmed the death of one of its members, but with no mention of the Airstrike at Al-Dabaa. This didn’t matter though, speculation was already that was from the airstrike, due to the timing, that was inevitable.

https://twitter.com/joetruzman/status/1419160056113754118

Rumours also followed that the airstrike was in response to the rocket attack from Lebanon on the evening of the 19th July 2021. The airstrike was reportedly against a Hezbollah cache of fuels and oil being smuggled into Lebanon from Iran. Of course, this can’t be confirmed.

So, Al-Alam’s article (I’m there now). Hezbollah do generally announce when their members are killed by Israeli airstrikes in Syria, last year Ali Kamel Mohsen was killed in an airstrike near Damascus Airport and they are very vocal that they will respond etc.

So, Al-Alam claim that the tanker attack was in response to the the death of two “resistance forces” at Al-Dabaa, does this mean Hezbollah aren’t being truthful or have Al-Alam just confirmed the death of other “resistance forces”?

High-Res imagery courtesy of @planet shows the extent of the airstrike at Al-Dabaa, multiple HAS targeted along with an impact on the runway. Kompsat imagery (unreleased) from the 22nd July shows the same thing, and there is no difference in the runway and HAS between these imgs

The question is now, who do we believe Al-Alam, claiming the death of two, or the lack of acknowledgement from any “resistance forces” that any of their members died in this strike. You can make your own opinion of if you think Al-Alam are giving the full details, but there is…

More at play here, in the last few weeks a significant cyber attack against the Iranian Railway network was conducted according to the media, also Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, have we seen a response for that? I’m not convinced we have (or maybe we have now?) , it feels like Al-Alam are..

just looking recent, not the full bigger picture, but that’s just my opinion, or maybe they are shedding more like on the bigger picture and providing more details.

Speaking to @obretix in the background and discussing the HAS Situation these could also be from secondary fires from targeting near by (the rumoured fuels?) or coincidental wildfires at the same time as HAS doors don’t appear to be blown out, lots of variables to be considered.

This is important to highlight as it shows the level of variables that come into play here and I missed this one when writing the thread so thanks to @obretix for reminding me so it can be noted.

Additional notes added to the high resolution imagery analysis which I missed when writing the thread and important to highlight.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1421584279134515200