Based on the evidence available, this race is no longer safe D, at least for now.
That said, Newsom has just begun campaigning and the undecideds break strongly Democratic. I expect that we’ll see things revert towards the state’s base partisanship as the recall approaches.
That said, Newsom has just begun campaigning and the undecideds break strongly Democratic. I expect that we’ll see things revert towards the state’s base partisanship as the recall approaches.
https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1421601897010450434
I’d be very surprised if this works for the GOP and if it doesn’t revert — we’ve seen that the undecideds don’t split evenly in heavily R/D states and CA’s universal vote by mail system helps solve a turnout problem for Ds. But he can’t sleep on it, and I don’t expect he will.
On evidence available to us for this race, it’s *currently* likely D. That’s not safe, and Newsom can’t sleep on it
But I don’t expect he will, and he’s starting to crank up campaigning. As voters begin to pay more attention, I’d expect Dems begin to get fired up and vote too.
But I don’t expect he will, and he’s starting to crank up campaigning. As voters begin to pay more attention, I’d expect Dems begin to get fired up and vote too.
Bottom line: GOP still have an incredibly tough hill to climb and I believe Newsom is still more likely to win by double digits than he is to lose the recall, but he can’t relax.
And no, I don’t think they should have run a backup, or he’d be in some actual trouble.
And no, I don’t think they should have run a backup, or he’d be in some actual trouble.
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