A longitudinal study of #Bitcoin's supply distribution since the genesis block.

Summary: Bitcoin continues a 12 year trend of distributing evenly. Small holders are a rising force.

(Includes new data unseen before.)

Before I continue, all the data used in this study are actual entities, not addresses.

Addresses are clustered forensically to resolve to individual participants.

In some cases they monitored on-chain entities (e.g. exchanges) in other cases from financial reporting (e.g. ETFs)

Whales (1000+ BTC in wealth) continue to distribute their coins while minnows are increasingly gaining more of the supply (0-10 BTC).

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Willy Woo

@woonomic

20 Jul

Wee little fishies are going parabolic.

This is the ratio of supply held by holders of 0-10 BTC vs 100+ BTC (Dolphins to Humpback Whales).

PS. Little guys hold 32% of what the big guys hold, and that does even not include their loot on exchanges or ETFs.

This is what it looked like in the 2017 bull market.

And the 2013 bull market.

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Willy Woo

@woonomic

14 Jul

HUGE misunderstandings arising from Active Addresses vs Entities.

Entities: Estimates users via on-chain forensics

Active Addresses: Impacted by user growth, wallet activity (trade conditions), mempool congestion (drops in hash rate), fees spamming.

Chart: Unprecedented growth of users joining the network during this price dip while active addresses plummet.

-> It's a time of low volatility (less traders sending coins between exchanges to trade) and at a time when the network hash rate experienced The Great China Migration.

Any analysis using active addresses in this time where China tripped the power cord in April (power outages) and a historic banning of miners in May/June will be stupidly flawed.

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Willy Woo

@woonomic

8 Jul

As price grinds sideways-bearish, coins are being scooped off the exchanges at a very bullish rate.

PS. The latest sizing of withdrawals vs deposits are at local highs at levels that signal a bottom, whales are scooping.

Here's another view of it, in terms of supply shock... the ratio of coins available on exchanges vs total supply (inverted so it tracks price).

Quantitative supply shock underway.

Last time I saw this, it took some time before price bounced (Oct 2020); it bounced hard.

A qualitative view of supply shock. Measured in holders who ain't likely to sell vs the ones that do.

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Willy Woo

@woonomic

6 Jul

JP Morgan is bearish on the GBTC unlock coming up.

Here I'll go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind.

There's 2 impacts, one bullish, one bearish. The key is in how they interact. IMO it'll be immediately bullish.

coindesk.com/grayscale-unlo…

Grayscale is a unique product. It's designed as a black hole that sucks in BTC.

No BTC ever leaves the trust, apart from Grayscale taking its 2% management fees from the holdings, this is the only way to reduce the GBTC inventory.

How does GBTC increase its holdings?

They allow accredited investors to add BTC into the trusts holdings in return for receiving shares in the trust (which normally trades at a premium to BTC).

This is the so-called "carry trade".

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