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Willy Woo Profile picture
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20 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Wee little fishies are going parabolic.

This is the ratio of supply held by holders of 0-10 BTC vs 100+ BTC (Dolphins to Humpback Whales).

PS. Little guys hold 32% of what the big guys hold, and that does even not include their loot on exchanges or ETFs.
This is what it looked like in the 2017 bull market.
And the 2013 bull market.
Data is from @glassnode.

Holdings are entities; NOT addresses. Addresses are forensically clustered into individual participants to create entities.

Big guys are adjusted for exchanges, ETFS (including Grayscale), and mining entities (i.e. coins held by lots of little guys).

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More from @woonomic

Willy Woo Profile picture
22 Jul
A longitudinal study of #Bitcoin's supply distribution since the genesis block.

Summary: Bitcoin continues a 12 year trend of distributing evenly. Small holders are a rising force.

(Includes new data unseen before.) Image
Before I continue, all the data used in this study are actual entities, not addresses.

Addresses are clustered forensically to resolve to individual participants.

In some cases they monitored on-chain entities (e.g. exchanges) in other cases from financial reporting (e.g. ETFs)
Whales (1000+ BTC in wealth) continue to distribute their coins while minnows are increasingly gaining more of the supply (0-10 BTC). Image
Read 13 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
14 Jul
HUGE misunderstandings arising from Active Addresses vs Entities.

Entities: Estimates users via on-chain forensics

Active Addresses: Impacted by user growth, wallet activity (trade conditions), mempool congestion (drops in hash rate), fees spamming.
Chart: Unprecedented growth of users joining the network during this price dip while active addresses plummet.

-> It's a time of low volatility (less traders sending coins between exchanges to trade) and at a time when the network hash rate experienced The Great China Migration.
Any analysis using active addresses in this time where China tripped the power cord in April (power outages) and a historic banning of miners in May/June will be stupidly flawed.
Read 7 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
8 Jul
As price grinds sideways-bearish, coins are being scooped off the exchanges at a very bullish rate.

PS. The latest sizing of withdrawals vs deposits are at local highs at levels that signal a bottom, whales are scooping.
Here's another view of it, in terms of supply shock... the ratio of coins available on exchanges vs total supply (inverted so it tracks price).

Quantitative supply shock underway.

Last time I saw this, it took some time before price bounced (Oct 2020); it bounced hard.
A qualitative view of supply shock. Measured in holders who ain't likely to sell vs the ones that do.
Read 4 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
6 Jul
JP Morgan is bearish on the GBTC unlock coming up.

Here I'll go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind.

There's 2 impacts, one bullish, one bearish. The key is in how they interact. IMO it'll be immediately bullish.

coindesk.com/grayscale-unlo…
Grayscale is a unique product. It's designed as a black hole that sucks in BTC.

No BTC ever leaves the trust, apart from Grayscale taking its 2% management fees from the holdings, this is the only way to reduce the GBTC inventory.
How does GBTC increase its holdings?

They allow accredited investors to add BTC into the trusts holdings in return for receiving shares in the trust (which normally trades at a premium to BTC).

This is the so-called "carry trade".
Read 8 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
20 Jun
Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.

Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.

We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).
So who is selling?

Whales aren't selling.
Sharks aren't selling.
Dolphins aren't selling.

Big holders are holding.
Read 9 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
18 Jun
#marketupdate, IMO from on-chain is sideways then bullish in maybe a week or so.

Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety.
The first thing to look at is to answer "are we in a bear market". Welp, bear markets start when no new buyers enter to support price and that aint happening, we have healthy growth of new users joining the network.

Let this frame all other metrics.
Of primary interest is capital rotation from stablecoins back into the crypto markets (I'll say that's mainly BTC since alt coins are reducing in dominance).

All of that dry powder sitting on the sidelines has started flowing back in.
Read 11 tweets

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