A longitudinal study of #Bitcoin's supply distribution since the genesis block.

Summary: Bitcoin continues a 12 year trend of distributing evenly. Small holders are a rising force.

(Includes new data unseen before.)
Before I continue, all the data used in this study are actual entities, not addresses.

Addresses are clustered forensically to resolve to individual participants.

In some cases they monitored on-chain entities (e.g. exchanges) in other cases from financial reporting (e.g. ETFs)
Whales (1000+ BTC in wealth) continue to distribute their coins while minnows are increasingly gaining more of the supply (0-10 BTC).
The Bitcoin "middle class" are the holders between 10 - 1000 BTC. They have more or less remained steady.

Since 2018 the subtle trend is similar to whales, towards more even distribution, as the give up their coins to smaller holders.
The story for 2021 is the rise of the dolphins and sharks (very roughly $3m - $60m in BTC at 2021 prices).

This rise is likely from high net worth individuals, family offices, hedge funds and smaller corporate treasuries. They absorbed much of whale distribution.
The mega wealthy 10k+ whale club ($300m+) has almost vanished, they hold 3.75% of the supply today.

This compares to 26.0% held by the 1k+ whale club.

(10k+ whales are counted in the 1k+ whale figures).
Of growing importance are entities who have custody of coins owned by many.

Exchanges have 13.8% of the supply with in excess of 150m unique verified accounts in 2021.

ETFs have 3.7% of the supply.
TREND: Coins are moving to the masses.

Whales (1000+ BTC) hold 26.0%.

Exchanges and ETFs collectively hold 17.5% on behalf of 150m+ customers

Minnows (0-10BTC) hold 13.6%.

Minnows are close to holding most of the supply. (Minnows + exchanges/ETFs hold 31% vs whales at 26%).
For completeness, this trace is Satoshi's coins (5.8% of the supply).

I've removed them from the supply owned by whales as the Satoshi coins are assumed 'lost'.
These are the coins held by miners at 3.9% of the supply.

Their coins have not been removed from the cohorts. (If you're a whale miner, your coins count as a whale, ditto for minnow miners etc).

Miners have been distributing their coins for a decade.
Sidenote: whales distribute their coins on every bull rally.

I've included 2 charts:

1) What whales are really doing (orderly distribution each bull market)

2) misleading results from address analysis w/o clustering and eco system adjustments (whales pump and dump the market)
Address analysis done badly is the culprit for much FUD thrown at this industry.
Finally here's the full ecosystem in one chart.

On-chain data: @glassnode

ETF data: @woonomic (via the art of data archeology, scraping the web for historical data)

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More from @woonomic

20 Jul
Wee little fishies are going parabolic.

This is the ratio of supply held by holders of 0-10 BTC vs 100+ BTC (Dolphins to Humpback Whales).

PS. Little guys hold 32% of what the big guys hold, and that does even not include their loot on exchanges or ETFs.
This is what it looked like in the 2017 bull market.
And the 2013 bull market.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jul
HUGE misunderstandings arising from Active Addresses vs Entities.

Entities: Estimates users via on-chain forensics

Active Addresses: Impacted by user growth, wallet activity (trade conditions), mempool congestion (drops in hash rate), fees spamming.
Chart: Unprecedented growth of users joining the network during this price dip while active addresses plummet.

-> It's a time of low volatility (less traders sending coins between exchanges to trade) and at a time when the network hash rate experienced The Great China Migration.
Any analysis using active addresses in this time where China tripped the power cord in April (power outages) and a historic banning of miners in May/June will be stupidly flawed.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jul
As price grinds sideways-bearish, coins are being scooped off the exchanges at a very bullish rate.

PS. The latest sizing of withdrawals vs deposits are at local highs at levels that signal a bottom, whales are scooping.
Here's another view of it, in terms of supply shock... the ratio of coins available on exchanges vs total supply (inverted so it tracks price).

Quantitative supply shock underway.

Last time I saw this, it took some time before price bounced (Oct 2020); it bounced hard.
A qualitative view of supply shock. Measured in holders who ain't likely to sell vs the ones that do.
Read 4 tweets
6 Jul
JP Morgan is bearish on the GBTC unlock coming up.

Here I'll go through the inner workings so you can make up your own mind.

There's 2 impacts, one bullish, one bearish. The key is in how they interact. IMO it'll be immediately bullish.

Grayscale is a unique product. It's designed as a black hole that sucks in BTC.

No BTC ever leaves the trust, apart from Grayscale taking its 2% management fees from the holdings, this is the only way to reduce the GBTC inventory.
How does GBTC increase its holdings?

They allow accredited investors to add BTC into the trusts holdings in return for receiving shares in the trust (which normally trades at a premium to BTC).

This is the so-called "carry trade".
Read 8 tweets
20 Jun
Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.

Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.

We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).
So who is selling?

Whales aren't selling.
Sharks aren't selling.
Dolphins aren't selling.

Big holders are holding.
Read 9 tweets
18 Jun
#marketupdate, IMO from on-chain is sideways then bullish in maybe a week or so.

Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety.
The first thing to look at is to answer "are we in a bear market". Welp, bear markets start when no new buyers enter to support price and that aint happening, we have healthy growth of new users joining the network.

Let this frame all other metrics.
Of primary interest is capital rotation from stablecoins back into the crypto markets (I'll say that's mainly BTC since alt coins are reducing in dominance).

All of that dry powder sitting on the sidelines has started flowing back in.
Read 11 tweets

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