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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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3 Aug, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Another close #CAgov poll—although it's worth noting that Emerson has always shown a closer race than other pollsters.
And another poll, from the new pollster Core Decision Analytics, finds 49% of likely voters against the recall and 42% for it. coredecision.com/roadtotherecal…
Actually, with leaners, this CODA poll is 51% against the recall, 44% in favor among likely voters.

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More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
28 Jul
Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)
First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)
Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
21 Jun
Want to understand the #NYCmayor election results like a local?

🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁

Introducing the FIVE POLITICAL BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY! fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
14 May
WOW.
Background:
In justifying its decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court writes, "It is wholly within the realm of possibility that the drafters foresaw or even hoped for a drop in congressional representation that would render the ballot-initiative process unworkable." courts.ms.gov/Images/Opinion…
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
29 Mar
Blocked and reported.
Looks like this map is from just before the 2019 season: seatgeek.com/tba/articles/w…

Which of course means that @NateSilver538's definition of New England is probably just Suffolk and Middlesex counties now, post-Mookie trade.
On the other hand, this might legitimately be the most recent map of MLB fandom we have... That @UpshotNYT tour de force is somehow 7 years old now. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
4 Mar
Because of the pandemic, I’ve been buying Girl Scout cookies online, which means I’ve finally been able to try both the ABC Bakers and Little Brownie Bakers cookies. This thread will serve as a taste test.
1. The biggest difference: S’mores. Both good in their own way. If you like creamy chocolate, you want ABC, but I lean slightly toward the higher graham-cracker-to-chocolate ratio of LBB.
2. Thin Mints. Very similar taste, but Little Brownie (left) is flakier while ABC is denser. ABC wins this one. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
3 Mar
Sure looks like white voters took advantage of approval voting in yesterday's #STLmayor election more than Black ones. cc @jrosenbaum docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
White wards in SW St. Louis, like 16, 24, 23, and 10 cast the most votes per ballot (as many as 1.79).

Black wards on the north side, like 1, 27, 21, and 4, cast the fewest (1.34 votes per ballot or lower).
Cara Spencer, the white progressive alderwoman, won a spot in the runoff by doing well in white wards, both conservative working-class ones and liberal gentrifying ones. She got very little support on the Black north side. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 7 tweets

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