Just a matter of patience and time before $42k breaks.

Strong HODLers, the Rick Astleys of this world, have been taking this opportunity to scoop large amounts of coinage while we're under the resistance ceiling. Image
Mid-macro view:
90 day moving average of coins moving to Mr Astley about to cross bullish. Image
The movement of coins to and from Mr Astley brought to you via forensic clustering of on-chain data courtesy of @glassnode.
Looking good so far. Image

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More from @woonomic

1 Aug
The Bitcoin Forecast #024, The Buyers Bazaar is out. please check your inboxes and spam filters or read it online.

willywoo.substack.com/p/024-the-buye…
Some charts from #023... some of which are still relevant.

User growth is going parabolic.
Supply Shock divergence is in play, hence "Squeezy Times".
Read 6 tweets
1 Aug
The 3 laws of #Bitcoin:

1) “This is good for Bitcoin”
2) “Bitcoin fixes this”
3) “There is no top, Laura”
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
A longitudinal study of #Bitcoin's supply distribution since the genesis block.

Summary: Bitcoin continues a 12 year trend of distributing evenly. Small holders are a rising force.

(Includes new data unseen before.)
Before I continue, all the data used in this study are actual entities, not addresses.

Addresses are clustered forensically to resolve to individual participants.

In some cases they monitored on-chain entities (e.g. exchanges) in other cases from financial reporting (e.g. ETFs)
Whales (1000+ BTC in wealth) continue to distribute their coins while minnows are increasingly gaining more of the supply (0-10 BTC).
Read 13 tweets
20 Jul
Wee little fishies are going parabolic.

This is the ratio of supply held by holders of 0-10 BTC vs 100+ BTC (Dolphins to Humpback Whales).

PS. Little guys hold 32% of what the big guys hold, and that does even not include their loot on exchanges or ETFs.
This is what it looked like in the 2017 bull market.
And the 2013 bull market.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jul
HUGE misunderstandings arising from Active Addresses vs Entities.

Entities: Estimates users via on-chain forensics

Active Addresses: Impacted by user growth, wallet activity (trade conditions), mempool congestion (drops in hash rate), fees spamming.
Chart: Unprecedented growth of users joining the network during this price dip while active addresses plummet.

-> It's a time of low volatility (less traders sending coins between exchanges to trade) and at a time when the network hash rate experienced The Great China Migration.
Any analysis using active addresses in this time where China tripped the power cord in April (power outages) and a historic banning of miners in May/June will be stupidly flawed.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jul
As price grinds sideways-bearish, coins are being scooped off the exchanges at a very bullish rate.

PS. The latest sizing of withdrawals vs deposits are at local highs at levels that signal a bottom, whales are scooping.
Here's another view of it, in terms of supply shock... the ratio of coins available on exchanges vs total supply (inverted so it tracks price).

Quantitative supply shock underway.

Last time I saw this, it took some time before price bounced (Oct 2020); it bounced hard.
A qualitative view of supply shock. Measured in holders who ain't likely to sell vs the ones that do.
Read 4 tweets

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