Thread by @Redistrict

NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission).

I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread...

First: the maximally aggressive play would be to try to convert the current 19D-8R map to 23D-3R. The example below eliminates Reed's #NY23 and flips #NY01 Zeldin, #NY11 Malliotakis and #NY22 Tenney from Trump to Biden 10+ districts.

In this scenario, Dems' approach to #NY24 Katko is a bit of a bank shot. The goal would be to dislodge Katko from his Syracuse base enough to make him vulnerable in a primary from the right, but keep #NY24 blue enough that Dems could win it in the general.

However, a potential drawback for Dems: to make this approach work, they might have to collapse two of their own NYC seats (either #NY10 Nadler, 73, or #NY12 Maloney, 75, would probably need to retire) and a new Upstate Dem seat would be created (#NY12).

If no NYC Dem agrees to retire, Dems would need to push their incumbents further north into Upstate (b/c NY is losing a seat and everyone needs to expand). Which brings us to the second scenario...

Second: Dems could opt for a slightly more conservative 22D-4R plan like the example below, w/ one super-blue Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica vote sink (#NY22 here). This plan wouldn't dislocate a single Dem incumbent - in fact, every Dem incumbent would get a few points safer.

Either way, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R) #NY21 and Claudia Tenney (R) #NY22 would have little choice but to run against each other in a North Country GOP vote sink to stay in Congress, and Stefanik would be heavily favored.

One more thing: I'm not so sure the popular, pro-impeachment Katko (R) would be doomed in a super-blue Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica seat like #NY22 in the second scenario above.

The first scenario would at least give Dems a good shot in whichever Syracuse seat Katko *doesn't* run in.