Suraj Profile picture
8 Aug, 15 tweets, 5 min read
This thread overviews the extraordinary performance of @Neeraj_chopra1 at Tokyo 2020 in the men’s javelin throw event - the statistics & history involved.

It describes the pathbreaking nature of the achievement, with regard to both Neeraj’s own and continental performance.

1/
No Asian has ever won the men’s javelin gold before. The event has been the preserve of east/central Europeans built like tanks. Neeraj is only the second non-white to win it after Kershorn Walcott. In fact the magnitude of the achievement is even greater…

2/
No Asian has ever even medaled in Olympic javelin throw before. The Finns and other Nordics monopolize it, with Germany, USSR and Hungary making up most of the rest. They also own all the best javelin brands, covered later. But that’s not all…

3/
Neeraj is only the second ever Asian to win an Olympic throwing event, after Koji Murofushi’s 2004 hammer throw win. For several reasons, Neeraj did better - starting with the fact that he has no sporting pedigree, coming from a nation with no pedigree in javelin whatsoever.

4/
Koji is the son of 5x Asian Games hammer throw champ Shigenobu Murofushi, and a Hungarian-Romanian competitive javelin thrower. In short, he has a huge genetic benefit that helped him be the only other Asian male winner of an Olympic throwing event.

5/
In fact, only 3 Asian men have even medaled in throwing - Koji in hammer, Iran’s Ehsan Hadadi silver in discus 2008, and now Neeraj. These events are almost always dominated by Nordic/east/central Europe. No Chinese or Korean male has ever medaled in throwing sports.

6/
In over half a century, only three men have won the javelin event with their first throw:
Hungarian legend Miklos Nemeth in 1976
Jan Zelezny, the greater javelin thrower ever, in 1992
Neeraj Chopra in 2020

7/
Ending the competition on first throw has been a habit for Neeraj. In fact at both #CWG2018 and #AsianGames2018 all his throws exceeded the 2nd place winner’s best throws. At #Tokyo2020 his first throw was beyond the 2nd best, and his second was even better.

8/
This was despite the fact that the silver, bronze and 4th place winners all threw their season best throws - Neeraj finished nearly 1 meter ahead of them. Fancied Johannes Vetter, the greatest modern thrower, struggled, after stating:

9/

indianexpress.com/article/olympi…
The Tokyo games were affected by rain and winds. Planning ahead, Neeraj switched from his old Nemeth (from the company started by Miklos) to the imaginatively named Nordic Valhalla javelin earlier this year:

10/

espn.com/athletics/stor…
Nordic Sport (previously Sandvik) and Nemeth are the two most popular javelin brands. A Valhalla javelin retails for about Rs.80000. Technically unforgiving, it rewards perfect technique with high ability to tolerate wet/windy conditions, which prevailed on Aug 7 in Tokyo.

11/
Even before the Olympics, Neeraj was perhaps the most accomplished Indian athlete ever - the world junior champ, junior WR holder, CWG and AG champ - all by the age of 20. At 23, he’s among the youngest ever Olympic champions.

12/
In 2016, Neeraj won the world U20 championship with a WR breaking throw of 86.48m, which would have earned him a bronze at Rio 2016. However the junior championship was too late to serve as qualification for Rio 2016, so he could not participate.



13/
Neeraj is now the gold medalist in every major senior level event he has ever participated in on first attempt- AG, CWG and now OG. He won all of them on his first throw. He has never taken part in a world championship, missing 2019 due to career threatening elbow injury

14/
Heartiest congratulations once again to @Neeraj_chopra1 for winning an event no Asian has ever managed, in such a stupendous manner. Kudos to everyone nurturing this once in a generation talent, and I hope there are many more. @KirenRijiju @PMOIndia @ianuragthakur

15/15

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More from @surajbrf

26 Jun
Updating this for June Week 4.

The only way to describe this week is OFF THE CHARTS.

Forget all the encouraging steady rise numbers so far. This week blew them away, doubling the 7DMA in a week to begin with:

1/
Each of the last 8 days - from Sat Jun 19 to Sat Jun 26 - were all time best days of week for vaccinations, with 26th overtaking the perf on 18th. The past week dominates the list of best ever single days for vaccinations:

2/
June Week 4 was by a long distance the best ever week, with almost 45 million vaccinations done, exceeding the populations of many countries:

3/
Read 7 tweets
23 Jun
Well, let’s look at the best performing Sun, Mon and Tue for vaccination since start of April when >45 was allowed then.

Oops. The best ever Sunday was June 20. The best ever Monday was June 21. The best ever Tuesday was June 22.

1/
Maybe the ‘hoarding’ began Saturday then ? Oops no, Saturday June 19 was the best ever Saturday.

Must be Friday ? Nope, June 18 was the 4th best but very close to the top, and Fridays in June take up 3 of top 4.

2/
So did the trickery begin earlier ? Nope. Three full weeks of June occupy spots 2, 3 and 5 of top 5 best performing weeks along with the 2 April peak. Three days in , the current week is already on track to make the top 5 easily, if not become the all time best week.

3/
Read 6 tweets
20 Jun
Updating as a new vaccination data thread for June Week 3.

1. Mon to Sat saw >3m doses everyday.

2. Mon and Sat each had >4 million.

3. The past 11 days have seen >3m/day trailing 7DMA - almost matching 12 consecutive days in April. Current 7DMA is 3.34m/day.

1/
With consistently rising consumption, the extrapolation of production based on weekly consumption has also risen to 117m/month rate now.

This is close to the higher end forecast of 120m/mo rate projected for June, with one more week to go, and almost 2x early May rate.

2/
Nit: earlier image should say Wk 3 for last bar.

The rate of increase from Wk2 wasn’t as high as prior weeks, but a month long acceleration is clear - already twice as long as the April surge in vaccinations, with supplies still increasing.

3/
Read 6 tweets
9 Jun
This thread updates Indian vaccine order data as of June 8 2021.

First an overview of all orders by the central government paid for or advance made. Current cumulative total is 1055.5 million doses ordered.

1/
General observation: Mar/Apr/May orders are approx 6 weeks apart. This offers insight into production rate.

SII: 100m doses at 6 week cadence, translates to 67m/month rate in March (100/6*4)

Next order is 110m order 6 weeks later, implying 73m/month production rate April.

2/
The June order of 250m doses is harder to parse, but if production rate is 100m/month, it means next SII order will be ~10 weeks from now.

So the order cadence here aligns closely with stated SII production rate estimates for the same months.

3/
Read 12 tweets
25 May
This thread examines vaccination data from April and May (to date). It also looks at state/zone level, and some priority behavior by states.

All data from MOHFW and PIB daily reports:
pib.gov.in/allRel.aspx
mohfw.gov.in

First, an aggregate picture:

1/
Observations:
It has regularly been stated that April saw extremely high vaccination. In total numbers, this is true, over 90 million, increasing from 64M to 154M. However, daily data shows this is heavily biased to the first half.

2/
The April 7 day vaccination moving average drops to well below 3m/day in the second half of the month. And end of month it is 2.3M/day. May performance on the other hand has touched 2m/day as of May 24.

3/
Read 23 tweets
22 May
There’s a lot of recent handwaving about Covaxin focusing on sensationalism around ‘lack of WHO EUL’. The status of this information can be readily found:
extranet.who.int/pqweb/sites/de…

@BharatBiotech submitted the EOI only a month ago, with pre-submission meeting in May/June.

1/
The WHO guidelines are listed here: who.int/publications/m…

This qualifies everything from the trials process to manufacturing.

2/
An interesting example here is J&J, which received an ok of its US/Netherlands manufacturing sites in March:

But then the entire US production has been under question. All US J&J vaccines used are imported from Netherlands.

news.yahoo.com/100-million-do…

3/
Read 11 tweets

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