Each of the last 8 days - from Sat Jun 19 to Sat Jun 26 - were all time best days of week for vaccinations, with 26th overtaking the perf on 18th. The past week dominates the list of best ever single days for vaccinations:
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June Week 4 was by a long distance the best ever week, with almost 45 million vaccinations done, exceeding the populations of many countries:
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The extrapolated dynamic production rate computed from consumption accelerated from just under 120m/month prior week to 224m/month from this week’s data. If this momentum keeps up, 6-7million/day can be sustained.
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Ourworldindata is a couple of days behind, but India overtook EU and North America in number of people with at least one vaccine dose, due to the sharp acceleration this week.
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India also overtook combined Americas and all of Europe in the rate of daily vaccinations as a 7DMA this week, crossing 6 million a day, much more than the peak performance in Europe, home to most major vaccine companies:
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This week was the week many of us have been waiting for, reporting outstanding numbers day after day. Now the task is to sustain and accelerate from here. June and July were always meant to be a period of acceleration, and it’s clearly happening now.
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Maybe the ‘hoarding’ began Saturday then ? Oops no, Saturday June 19 was the best ever Saturday.
Must be Friday ? Nope, June 18 was the 4th best but very close to the top, and Fridays in June take up 3 of top 4.
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So did the trickery begin earlier ? Nope. Three full weeks of June occupy spots 2, 3 and 5 of top 5 best performing weeks along with the 2 April peak. Three days in , the current week is already on track to make the top 5 easily, if not become the all time best week.
With consistently rising consumption, the extrapolation of production based on weekly consumption has also risen to 117m/month rate now.
This is close to the higher end forecast of 120m/mo rate projected for June, with one more week to go, and almost 2x early May rate.
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Nit: earlier image should say Wk 3 for last bar.
The rate of increase from Wk2 wasn’t as high as prior weeks, but a month long acceleration is clear - already twice as long as the April surge in vaccinations, with supplies still increasing.
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Observations:
It has regularly been stated that April saw extremely high vaccination. In total numbers, this is true, over 90 million, increasing from 64M to 154M. However, daily data shows this is heavily biased to the first half.
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The April 7 day vaccination moving average drops to well below 3m/day in the second half of the month. And end of month it is 2.3M/day. May performance on the other hand has touched 2m/day as of May 24.
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There’s a lot of recent handwaving about Covaxin focusing on sensationalism around ‘lack of WHO EUL’. The status of this information can be readily found: extranet.who.int/pqweb/sites/de…
@BharatBiotech submitted the EOI only a month ago, with pre-submission meeting in May/June.
I'll try to interpret the *data* I've presented in this context:
The Indian approach cab be best characterized as opportunistic. It considers that certain things can be affected and certain things cannot. It attempts to maximize what can be leveraged. Let us explore:
Given the choice to develop N vaccine candidates (N can be few or many), certain invariants hold:
* Each of N takes 3 steps to approval.
* Each will take a minimum time to clear all 3.
* Addi resources or options will not speed this up ('9 women and a baby in 1 month..')
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Therefore during the discovery phase the govt chose to be an enabler. As Poonawalla's tweets in Apr-Dec 2020 showed, Govt facilitated their scaling up and encouraged them to sign big deals, and start production early.
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