Thread by @FreedomFriesInc

(1) As I predicted in February when New Zealand started vaccinating it's 5 M people, today we learned the Delta variant is almost certainly here & we're nowhere near vaccinated enough.

🚨Our rates are <the US Deep South.🚨

By my estimate:

1 dose: 27%
2 doses: 16%

🇳🇿

(2) My goal since February has been to receive two Pfizer doses & I'm relieved to say I have achieved that.

I have diabetes, qualifying me for early access, & other less common health issues also contributing to my high risk of complications.

I've been anxious since Jan 2020.

(3) My first instinct in Jan 2020 was to get to the USA. In hindsight I'm glad that didn't happen. Maybe someone up there is looking after me.

(I can understand those who say there's clearly no one up there looking after most humans at the moment.)

So, about NZ:

(4) I love my country. I want to leave as soon as I can, but I still love it.

NZ just won it's highest number of Olympic medals ever, 20. We punch above our weight in sports and a bunch of other cool, beautiful, and dynamic things.

What we don't do well is risk management.

(5) NZ has a ton of experience in recent decades with major disasters like deadly earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and even with minor tsunamis.

The lessons learned from those other natural disasters were not translated into pandemic response and mitigation.

(6) I tried. Many people tried. Neither government nor opposition party would listen to us. So I re-set my expectations to care for me and my own.

I practiced what I've been preaching as an online hurricane watcher. There is a veritable bunker of supplies in my home now.

(7) Why do I believe the Delta variant is almost certainly in NZ & unlikely to be brought under control like the previous scares?

+ve cases arrived here from AU, 6 days ago among a ship's crew of 100. The port workers who met them were 90% unvaccinated.

Government failed us.

(8) We were told 6 months ago that border workers, incl. all sea/air ports of entry were top priority for vax access & any who refused would be moved away from working at the border.

Thousands of Kiwis have diligently worked to succeed at this. A few incompetent people blew it.

(9) Those incompetent people are NZ's elected government, & several of the public servants of the executive branch. I used to be one of those public servants. This would never have happened in the years I was there.

PM Jacinda Ardern is liked overseas. We know the reality.

(10) It will take a few weeks for most Kiwis to grasp what was allowed to happen in the past week, & what that means.

We had a precious window of 6 months to get our vaccination rates high enough to protect our most vulnerable & to shore up our border.

27% have had one dose.

(11) Even if it were possible to achieve the same level of lockdown that Kiwis undertook in March-April 2020, it wouldn't stop the tsunami of hospitalisations & deaths we now face.

We have an ICU capacity of roughly 800 beds, ventilators, & staff.

We need vaccinators too.

(12) So one dilemma is how to re-assign our nursing & related health professionals' workforce, in a hurry.

ICU beds? General beds? Vaccinators?

Government will probably mess that up, too.

And our ANZAC big brother can't exactly help now.

(13) Between Australia (26 M) and NZ (5 M) we have to somehow save ourselves AND help about 30 smaller Pacific Island countries, as we always have.

The USA will do as much as it reasonably can to help, I know that. But ICYMI, that country has more than enough challenges atm.

(14) One other thing about Covid vaccinations in NZ.

There are 4 priority groups, Group 1 is the highest.

Mine, Group 3, has 1.7 M people out of 5 M in the country. Essentially >65s & 16-64 year olds with certain medical conditions.

Data tracking: health.govt.nz/our-work/disea…

(15) Of Group 3, (essentially >65s & 16-64 year olds with certain medical conditions) the vax rates to date are:

1st dose: 28%
2nd dose: 15%

I really hope my math is OK here. It's not my strong suit. No lucrative STEM career for me, lol.

(16) The service design for 1.7 M in Group 3 is a very blunt instrument for rapidly getting the jabs into the arms of those who most need them.

Many people far more at risk than me will likely not be vaccinated in time. And, NZ's healthcare system WILL fall over.

😐

(17) The other issue is that the Delta variant is extremely transmissable, akin to the way chicken pox or the common cold spread.

The unvaccinated and likely infected dozens of port workers have been going in and out of buildings in their city and region for up to 6 days.

(18) Their trade union representative had the temerity to give a TV interview complaining about how worried those workers now are. And the state broadcaster showed the footage.

You can imagine the profanity-laden outburst inside my living room when I saw that.

(19) And the news keeps getting better (/sarcasm.)

12-15 year old Americans can be vaccinated. In NZ, they can't.

Our FDA-equivalent, MedSafe gave clinical approval some time ago. We're waiting on the govt to follow suit.

Delta is no respecter of age. Age is irrelevant.

(20) What a mess it all is. If you pray, please include New Zealand. Send whatever good vibes you can spare. I'll keep you updated as much as I can.

We shall think about good things, like our Olympic Women's Rugby 7s Gold.🥇