About the reports on #BokoHaram associates defecting in Cameroon & Nigeria... a thread... First, it is a welcome development, and it is clear that it has a lot to do with the Lake Chad states setting up and advertising defection/reintegration programmes.
Jihadis would not come out if it were not for those programmes, which make clear to them that there is a safe way out. It seems previous defectors play a big role in facilitating additional exits, too - informing potential defectors & contacting the authorities on their behalf.
So much for critics of these programmes... Yes, these pgs come with flaws, but if they can get some people to stop fighting, they are useful.
Second... as far as I can say, these defections seem to be a lot about the recent #ISWAP push against Shekau's #JASDJ, more than about military victories of the Lake Chad states. Tellingly, there are next to no recent reports of ISWAP fighters defecting.
The ones who come out seem to come in two types... the "awam", civilians who were living as serfs under JASDJ control and who are now free to go; and some JASDJ fighters who, for one reason or another, feel that ISWAP's reforms are spoiling their game.
And so let's keep cool. This is not "the last kicks of a dying horse". ISWAP has scored big by getting rid of Shekau. Yes, Bakura is resisting and has done damage, & yes, other JASDJ members in the Sambisa are clearly not happy with ISWAP. But ISWAP has gained.
ISWAP is not doing much now probably because of the rains and because it has to "absorb" JASDJ (including dealing with Bakura, one way or the other) and it has to reorganise. Its own governance and leadership is being revised. Abu Musab is not the established wali.
But I still pick signal that ISWAP is ambitious, serious about its rural governance programme, reaching out to farmers and so on. Don't underestimate these guys.
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