B117 grows exponentially in AB *since 3 months*.
Doubling time as of Mar 14: 11 days, R=1.29
That’s fast. During AB fall surge cases were doubling every 18 days.
At this rate AB may have:
Apr 19, 1000 daily new cases,
May 03, 2000 daily new cases
1/
Doubling time as of Mar 14: 11 days, R=1.29
That’s fast. During AB fall surge cases were doubling every 18 days.
At this rate AB may have:
Apr 19, 1000 daily new cases,
May 03, 2000 daily new cases
1/
Future effects of reopenings and vaccinations are not included in this projection.
Reopenings will speed the growth up.
Vaccines…
2/
Reopenings will speed the growth up.
Vaccines…
2/
We don’t know exactly how effective the vaccines are against transmission.
Let’s assume 60% effectiveness:
Then, in order to break the exponential growth of B117, i.e. to reduce its R from current 1.29 to 1.00, 38% of people would need to be vaccinated.
We are not there yet.
3/
Let’s assume 60% effectiveness:
Then, in order to break the exponential growth of B117, i.e. to reduce its R from current 1.29 to 1.00, 38% of people would need to be vaccinated.
We are not there yet.
3/
Hence, relying solely on vaccines to beat B117 is unreasonable.
4/
4/
Again, the normalcy is just 6-8 weeks away, if we explicitly aim for *stopping* Sars-CoV-2 transmission.
#COVIDzero
5/
#COVIDzero
5/
By not going for #COVIDzero AB wasted efforts and sacrifices done during the 1st and 2nd wave shut-downs.
Now, by not aiming for #COVIDzero, AB also squanders the vaccination effort.
6/
Now, by not aiming for #COVIDzero, AB also squanders the vaccination effort.
6/
On projections:
Projections, even on limited data (A), are extremely informative → they show the trend & the urgency of the problem.
Exponential growth rate of B117 turned out to be slightly slower than predicted on Feb 01.
The growth trend stands.
AB is making a 3rd wave.
Projections, even on limited data (A), are extremely informative → they show the trend & the urgency of the problem.
Exponential growth rate of B117 turned out to be slightly slower than predicted on Feb 01.
The growth trend stands.
AB is making a 3rd wave.
Sorry, it seems to be worse than on tweet 1/
I've just added today's numbers on the graph..
I have no time to update the calculations though.
Please take a blue crayon and draw a solid blue line much more to the left.
Thank you.
8/
I've just added today's numbers on the graph..
I have no time to update the calculations though.
Please take a blue crayon and draw a solid blue line much more to the left.
Thank you.
8/
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