Alberta could see the same number of new COVID-19 cases by mid-April as there were at the height of the second wave in December.
~2000 by April 19,
~4000 by April 29
Thank you @laurby for interviewing me for this article.
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edmontonjournal.com/news/researche…
~2000 by April 19,
~4000 by April 29
Thank you @laurby for interviewing me for this article.
1/
edmontonjournal.com/news/researche…
Projection from 2 days ago. Turns out conservative.
Today's actual total cases: 717 (projected: 563)
Most recent B117 doubling time: 7.3 days (faster then on this graph)
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Today's actual total cases: 717 (projected: 563)
Most recent B117 doubling time: 7.3 days (faster then on this graph)
2/
W/ update: calculated today, the B117 doubling time is 7.3
R value: 1.46
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R value: 1.46
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Those numbers will likely come sooner.
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4/
With today's number of new VOC cases (325) the gov. of Alberta can start using their own model from Jan 25, that starts @ 250 VOC cases.
As @shandro said, it was "the worst case scenario".
Seems that gov. model had: R=1.42, dt=8 days
VOC reality is: R=1.46, dt=7.3 days
..
5/
As @shandro said, it was "the worst case scenario".
Seems that gov. model had: R=1.42, dt=8 days
VOC reality is: R=1.46, dt=7.3 days
..
5/
...
dt = doubling time
@shandro @jkenney , our reality is worse than the "worst case scenario" predicted by your model on Jan 25.
cc: @CMOH_Alberta
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dt = doubling time
@shandro @jkenney , our reality is worse than the "worst case scenario" predicted by your model on Jan 25.
cc: @CMOH_Alberta
6/
Dear Minister of Health @shandro , you are one of very few people in the province who has both means and power to prevent this disaster from happening.
Please act decisively to save lives, health, and prevent bankruptcies.
cc: @CMOH_Alberta
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Please act decisively to save lives, health, and prevent bankruptcies.
cc: @CMOH_Alberta
7/
.
@shandro @jkenney
Each week of waiting adds 2-8 weeks of lockdown.
We need financially supported lockdown ASAP. Otherwise we end up with a harsher and longer lockdown and more deaths already in April.
cc: @CMOH_Alberta
8/
@shandro @jkenney
Each week of waiting adds 2-8 weeks of lockdown.
We need financially supported lockdown ASAP. Otherwise we end up with a harsher and longer lockdown and more deaths already in April.
cc: @CMOH_Alberta
8/
The solution is as always: #COVIDzero #ZeroCovid #Go4Zero
Now, because we let the VOCs grow so much, it is 8-12 weeks to relative normalcy. We had a window of opportunity, when it would take *mere 6 weeks*. It's blown. But zero is still within reach.
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Now, because we let the VOCs grow so much, it is 8-12 weeks to relative normalcy. We had a window of opportunity, when it would take *mere 6 weeks*. It's blown. But zero is still within reach.
9/
Vietnam, NZ, Australia, Atlantic Canada have recipes and know how on #ZeroCovid
Green Zones Strategy:
endcoronavirus.org/green-zones
Green Zones Strategy:
endcoronavirus.org/green-zones
Correction:
Gov. model seems to use for VOC: R=1.39, dt=8.4 days
(Not: R=1.42, dt=8 days, as I stated before)
VOC reality is: R=1.46, dt=7.3 days
So the difference is even bigger. Our reality is worse than the "worst case scenario" predicted by gov. model.
dt=doubling time
Gov. model seems to use for VOC: R=1.39, dt=8.4 days
(Not: R=1.42, dt=8 days, as I stated before)
VOC reality is: R=1.46, dt=7.3 days
So the difference is even bigger. Our reality is worse than the "worst case scenario" predicted by gov. model.
dt=doubling time
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