Thread by @JJSchroden

As an analyst, I do my best to look at the available data & devise analytic frameworks to organize & make logical & transparent sense of it. This is, however, not math. The answers aren't firm. There are no scientific laws on which to rely. Much has to be assumed. 1/n

https://twitter.com/JJSchroden/status/1425887144346853376

I do my best to keep track of my assumptions, to revisit them, to test them, & to gauge the risk associated with them being wrong. In this case, I assumed the #ANDSF would recognize that its advantages were in defending the cities. That they could dig in around them. 2/n

That when the #Taliban massed to take cities, the AAF could decimate them from the air. I wasn't sure how long the #ANDSF could withstand a siege & repeated assaults on the cities, but I assumed it would at least be thru this year. Those assumptions now look like poor ones. 3/n

As a professional analyst, I think it's important to acknowledge when conclusions based on analysis--which necessarily includes assumptions--prove incorrect. And to question why. It's the only way to learn, and to do better. I aim to do better. 4/n

To those Afghans who follow me, I'm sorry my assumptions haven't held up, that facts on the ground are other than what my analysis suggested. The implications of that are awful for you.

I will be praying for your safety. And for peace, somehow. 5/5