I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"
Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n
In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*
2/n
We also know that, despite what else they may say, western countries have concluded the collapse of Kabul is at least possible, if not probable & imminent
There was a man, who developed a rash on his hand. It wasn’t debilitating, but he desired to be rid of it. So he went to a doctor.
The doctor prescribed a cream & told the man to apply it every day. 2/n
This the man did. The rash receded, but did not disappear. The man kept applying the cream. Some time later, the rash began to expand again. Slowly, but discernibly, it was growing. 3/n
As an analyst, I do my best to look at the available data & devise analytic frameworks to organize & make logical & transparent sense of it. This is, however, not math. The answers aren't firm. There are no scientific laws on which to rely. Much has to be assumed. 1/n
I do my best to keep track of my assumptions, to revisit them, to test them, & to gauge the risk associated with them being wrong. In this case, I assumed the #ANDSF would recognize that its advantages were in defending the cities. That they could dig in around them. 2/n
That when the #Taliban massed to take cities, the AAF could decimate them from the air. I wasn't sure how long the #ANDSF could withstand a siege & repeated assaults on the cities, but I assumed it would at least be thru this year. Those assumptions now look like poor ones. 3/n
MR. KIRBY: I have seen lots of press reporting this morning about assessments coming out of #Afghanistan. I know you're all interested in that, let me tell you, I am not going to talk specifically about intelligence assessments one way or the other... 2/n
...We continue to monitor the situation in #Afghanistan closely. We are mindful of the deteriorating security situation. And our focus right now remains on supporting the Afghan forces in the field where and when feasible we can from the air, as well as completing ... 3/n
@PentagonPresSec Q: The air strikes that the U.S. has done thus far over the past three or four weeks with some regularity, how much difference have those air strikes made on the ground, in terms of the battlefield? 2/n
@PentagonPresSec & secondly, I'd like to ask you about @SecDef's thinking on this question about the utility of limited air strikes in #Afghanistan. So as you get to Aug 31st, what is his view about, do air strikes alone by the U.S. make a decisive – can they make a decisive difference? 3/n
Q: You're aware I'm sure about reports over the weekend. With the #Taliban clearly rolling along at this point, does @SecDef believe that the US should increase the amount of airstrikes & support it's giving to the Afghans? 2/n
@SecDef And can you say whether or not the Pentagon is making any recommendations to be allowed to do airstrikes beyond August 31, as currently planned? 3/n
@PentagonPresSec Q: On the SIVs, the flights. do you have any updates? They were supposed to come in on the 29th. Have they landed? Processing at Fort Lee? Anything? 2/n
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: I’m going to have to refer you to the State Dept for that. I don’t have any updates for you. As you know, when this first group of special immigrants do get to the US, they will be temporarily housed at Fort Lee. 3/n