I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"

Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n
In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*

2/n Image
We also know that, despite what else they may say, western countries have concluded the collapse of Kabul is at least possible, if not probable & imminent

3/n

apnews.com/article/joe-bi…
And we know that @JoeBiden has no regrets about the decision to complete the withdrawal by 31 August. 4/n

bbc.com/news/world-asi…
@JoeBiden What don't we know? Well, a lot. But here are some things that seem particularly pertinent from a "what happens next" perspective.

- Will the #ANDSF fight for Kabul?

- Will militias hold in Mazar-e-Sharif? Panjshir? The Hazarajat?

5/n
@JoeBiden - Will powerbrokers stay actively or tacitly aligned w/@ashrafghani?

- Will calls for a #LoyaJirgaNow to form a transitional government gain traction?

- Do the Taliban want to seize Kabul by force? How much do they really care about future int’l support?

6/n
@JoeBiden @ashrafghani What will regional countries--#China, #Russia, #Iran, #Pakistan, #India, Central Asian States--do now?

What about #alQaeda & #ISIS-K?

7/n
@JoeBiden @ashrafghani Colin Powell's 3rd question for intel analysts was, "Now, what do you think?"

I'm still formulating what I think based on the thread above. In the meantime, I welcome your thoughts in the replies👇 8/8

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More from @JJSchroden

14 Aug
A parable. 1/n
There was a man, who developed a rash on his hand. It wasn’t debilitating, but he desired to be rid of it. So he went to a doctor.

The doctor prescribed a cream & told the man to apply it every day. 2/n
This the man did. The rash receded, but did not disappear. The man kept applying the cream. Some time later, the rash began to expand again. Slowly, but discernibly, it was growing. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
12 Aug
As an analyst, I do my best to look at the available data & devise analytic frameworks to organize & make logical & transparent sense of it. This is, however, not math. The answers aren't firm. There are no scientific laws on which to rely. Much has to be assumed. 1/n
I do my best to keep track of my assumptions, to revisit them, to test them, & to gauge the risk associated with them being wrong. In this case, I assumed the #ANDSF would recognize that its advantages were in defending the cities. That they could dig in around them. 2/n
That when the #Taliban massed to take cities, the AAF could decimate them from the air. I wasn't sure how long the #ANDSF could withstand a siege & repeated assaults on the cities, but I assumed it would at least be thru this year. Those assumptions now look like poor ones. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
12 Aug
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
MR. KIRBY: I have seen lots of press reporting this morning about assessments coming out of #Afghanistan. I know you're all interested in that, let me tell you, I am not going to talk specifically about intelligence assessments one way or the other... 2/n
...We continue to monitor the situation in #Afghanistan closely. We are mindful of the deteriorating security situation. And our focus right now remains on supporting the Afghan forces in the field where and when feasible we can from the air, as well as completing ... 3/n
Read 105 tweets
11 Aug
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec Q: The air strikes that the U.S. has done thus far over the past three or four weeks with some regularity, how much difference have those air strikes made on the ground, in terms of the battlefield? 2/n
@PentagonPresSec & secondly, I'd like to ask you about @SecDef's thinking on this question about the utility of limited air strikes in #Afghanistan. So as you get to Aug 31st, what is his view about, do air strikes alone by the U.S. make a decisive – can they make a decisive difference? 3/n
Read 49 tweets
10 Aug
Comments on #Afghanistan by @PentagonPresSec from yesterday's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: You're aware I'm sure about reports over the weekend. With the #Taliban clearly rolling along at this point, does @SecDef believe that the US should increase the amount of airstrikes & support it's giving to the Afghans? 2/n
@SecDef And can you say whether or not the Pentagon is making any recommendations to be allowed to do airstrikes beyond August 31, as currently planned? 3/n
Read 69 tweets
29 Jul
Comments on #Afghanistan by @PentagonPresSec in today's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec Q: On the SIVs, the flights. do you have any updates? They were supposed to come in on the 29th. Have they landed? Processing at Fort Lee? Anything? 2/n
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: I’m going to have to refer you to the State Dept for that. I don’t have any updates for you. As you know, when this first group of special immigrants do get to the US, they will be temporarily housed at Fort Lee. 3/n
Read 7 tweets

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