Thread by @JJSchroden

Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…

MR. KIRBY: I have seen lots of press reporting this morning about assessments coming out of #Afghanistan. I know you're all interested in that, let me tell you, I am not going to talk specifically about intelligence assessments one way or the other... 2/n

...We continue to monitor the situation in #Afghanistan closely. We are mindful of the deteriorating security situation. And our focus right now remains on supporting the Afghan forces in the field where and when feasible we can from the air, as well as completing ... 3/n

...our drawdown in a safe and orderly way. We are on track to do that by the end of the month. Lastly, we are also remaining focused on the future bilateral relationship with Afghan forces that will be largely in a financial way and over-the-horizon support... 4/n

...As well as making sure that we maintain the capabilities we need to protect the homeland from any terrorist threats that might be emanating from #Afghanistan in an over-the-horizon fashion. So again, seeing the press reporting I'm not going to confirm or deny... 5/n

...the figures that some of you have been reporting. We don't talk about intelligence assessments. Our focus is on getting this drawdown done in a safe and orderly way. 6/n

Q: Has the US accelerated its planning for a withdrawal or evacuation of any Americans from #Afghanistan, specifically Kabul, considering this deteriorating situation that everyone can see? 7/n

...& has the Pentagon moved any additional either forces or assets into the region to help do some type of evacuation or is that expected in the coming days?
MR. KIRBY: I have no planning to speak to today. I have no force movement or operational transitions to speak to today.8/n

Q: And just as a follow-up has the situation deteriorated faster than the U.S. was planning such that is there a belief that the U.S. may have to get out or get at least some people out before the end of August? 9/n

MR. KIRBY: Again, I'm not going to speculate about contingencies and speculate about the future security situation. We're focused on the security situation that we face now, which again we've acknowledged is deteriorating. We are certainly mindful of the advances... 10/n

...that the #Taliban have made in terms of taking over yet an increased number of provincial capitals. And our focus is on supporting the Afghans in the field where and when we can and completing this drawdown. And I'm not going to speak about planning contingencies... 11/n

...or potential outcomes. And the other thing I'd say is that no potential outcome has to be inevitable, including the fall of Kabul, which everybody seems to be reporting about. It doesn't have to be that way. And I think it really depends on the kind of political and... 12/n

...military leadership that the Afghans can muster to turn this around. They have the capability, they have the capacity and now it's really time to use those things. 13/n

Q: I cannot express my people's situation. We have 300,000 Army. As President Biden said the #Taliban is 73,000 people. How can the Afghan Army and Afghan police not be able to defeat Taliban? 14/n

It's a high number, 300,000 -- we have our -- what is the main reason that they are not able to fight against the #Taliban. Taliban is very close to Kabul. 15/n

MR. KIRBY: We have seen them fight and contest areas. As for why in any given place the #Taliban continue to make advances, that's really not a question that we're prepared to answer here at the Pentagon. This is an Afghan military strategy that we are trying to support... 16/n

...as best we can and it really is going to come down to their leadership. They have, as you rightly said, they have the advantage in numbers, in operational structure, in air forces and in modern weaponry and it's really about having the will and the leadership to use... 17/n

...those advantages to their own benefit. And I just can't and I won't, as I've been very scrupulous about not doing from the podium, speak into a daily battlefield assessment when these aren't battles that we are involved in on the ground. And we are providing some... 18/n

...support from the air, but this is really an Afghan strategy and they should speak to that. 19/n

Q: Where did #Taliban get their supported, which countries supported them financially and other stuff? 20/n

MR. KIRBY: I don't have an assessment of #Taliban resources. And so I wouldn't speculate that there are a nation state or nation states that are necessarily backing them up. We have definitely seen in some of the things they've done on the ground have been clearly designed...21/n

...to help them gain revenue, border crossings, trying to take control over certain highways and avenues of transportation and communication, ways that will allow them to support themselves and to gain some revenue. But beyond that I'm really not at liberty to speculate. 22/n

Q: So you're repeatedly getting these questions about why the Afghan Army isn't apparently up to snuff and how America could just walk out on #Afghanistan under these conditions. Do you think DOD could have done a better job in recent months or in recent years... 23/n

...in articulating what the goals were in #Afghanistan and what things were supposed to look like or what they're not expected to look like when we leave? 24/n

MR. KIRBY: Well, I mean I can't speak for the entire 20 year history of the war, but the war has -- as the President has said the goals did migrate over time. And it would be wrong for us not to acknowledge that we did help enable some progress in #Afghanistan... 25/n

...More children in schools, including girls, economic & political & social opportunities for women. A democratically elected government, it's not saying it's not flawless, but a government. And living conditions that are much better, including life expectancy. 26/n

So there has been a lot of progress made over the last 20 years, but the President made this decision based on his calculus that we have greater counterterrorism threats against our homeland and our people and our interests than those that are emanating out of Afghanistan... 27/n

...That the main purpose for going into #Afghanistan in 2001 has been achieved in terms of the significant degradation of the threat by #AlQaeda and, of course, the death of Osama Bin Laden. And that the recipe can't be just a constant U.S. presence in Afghanistan... 28/n

...that never ends. So he's been clear in his direction of what he expected DOD to do since he became Commander-in-Chief and that's what we're executing to. The direction that we've be given to do a couple of things. To draw down our forces to a level that is only... 29/n

...commensurate with helping us maintain a diplomatic presence. To being able to support and protect that presence and enable diplomats to continue to do their jobs in #Afghanistan. And then to continue to support the Afghan forces through financial means and through... 30/n

...some contract support and over-the-horizon logistical support. And then number four, to make sure that the greatly reduced threat of terrorism from #Afghanistan stays greatly reduced and that the homeland doesn't become victim to an attack like we did 9/11 20 years ago... 31/n

...from terrorist networks that are operating out of #Afghanistan. 32/n

Q: Does the U.S. military have any plans to destroy sensitive Afghan equipment such as their A-29s before the #Taliban achieves its total victory? 33/n

MR. KIRBY: You're speculating about again an outcome that doesn't have to be inevitable. So, the short answer to your question is no. We are focused on supporting the Afghan Forces where and when we can. And what I think we're all mindful of is that they have advantages... 34/n

...and now is an opportunity for them to use those advantages, to include political and military leadership.

Q: What is U.S. military’s thinking about what is the #Taliban strategy? What does the U.S. military’s think about why the Taliban are concentrating in the north?

35/n

MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to speak for #Taliban strategy. I think you can understand why we wouldn't do that. All I can do is tell you what we're seeing on the ground. And what we're seeing on the ground is that the Taliban continues to advance and to assume control of... 36/n

...district and provincial centers that clearly indicate that they believe it is possible to gain governance through force, through brutality, through violence, through oppression, which is at great odds with their previously-stated goal of actually wanting to... 37/n

...participate in a negotiated political solution. Clearly their actions are not in resonance with what they have said they want to do at the negotiating table. Now what their military strategy is I think you know they should speak to that. We don't believe that there... 38/n

...is an effective military solution to be had to this conflict, that the only way through is a political negotiated settlement that includes all Afghans, that is Afghan-led and that the Afghan people have a voice and a say in. 39/n

Q: John is it too late for peace at this point though?

MR. KIRBY: I don't believe anybody thinks it's took late for peace. I mean we wouldn't be talking about a political settlement and a need to have a negotiated settlement if we believe that peace wasn't possible. 40/n

Q: The statement you made, that the recipe can't be a constant U.S. presence in #Afghanistan, it never ends. We've had U.S. troops in Europe for 70 years, including 20 years after the fall of the Soviet Union. What's the difference between that situation and Afghanistan? 41/n

MR. KIRBY: We're not in a combat role. And that's what the President's talking about. I mean we're still going to have U.S. Forces in #Afghanistan to help protect our diplomatic presence... 42/n

...What he's talking about is having U.S. Forces in AFG in a combat role and having this war just never end. 43/n

Q: At the White House earlier this afternoon, Jen Psaki was asked about US air strikes in support for the Afghan Forces beyond the Aug 31st deadline. She said it was a good question. So, is DOD rethinking the kinds of support it's going to offer #ANDSF beyond that deadline? 44/n

And also we keep hearing from you and from others that the Afghan Security Forces have the capacity, they have the capability to push back against the #Taliban but they need the will. At what point does that lack of political will to stand up to the Taliban begin to... 45/n

...endanger the embassy in Kabul and other US personnel and assets that are still in #Afghanistan? 46/n

MR. KIRBY: Well I mean on your second question, I think that remains to be seen. We do not believe that any of the potential negative outcomes that we've seen reported have to be inevitable, they have to happen. And I'm not prepared to go through a series of what... 47/n

...conditions would lead us to believe that no amount of political military leadership is going to turn the tide. We still think that that can happen. That through solid political military leadership, given the advantages that they have, that they can use that... 48/n

...Right now the authorities that we have to support the Afghans from the air expire at the end of this month with the drawdown. And so we are focused on using the authorities that we have, the capabilities that we have during the rest of the drawdown to support Afghan... 49/n

...Forces from the air. There has been no policy decision about what it looks like beyond that and I'm simply not going to speculate.

Q: To what extent did the U.S. underestimate the ability or capabilities of the #Taliban to make these sorts of gains this quickly? 50/n

MR. KIRBY: It's not about whether we underestimated or estimated appropriately. We had seen even before the President's announcement that the #Taliban had been making advances, largely at the district level. But they're moving in started well before the Biden Admin and... 51/n

...certainly well before the President decided that we were going to withdraw. Now, we have certainly seen in recent weeks that progress advance at a clip, no question about that. It's not about surprise, it's not like we weren't watching this. It is obviously we're... 52/n

...watching it with great concern. But I wouldn't say that there was an underestimation here. We can revisit the past all you want but what matters really is today and where we are now and again we believe Afghan Forces have what they need to make a significant... 53/n

...difference and it really is going to come down to leadership.

Q: John, if the Afghan Forces have what they need, why are they losing? 54/n

MR. KIRBY: I'll try this again. We had this discussion yesterday. I can't speak for Afghan strategy or Afghan tactics in the field. What I can tell you is that they do have those advantages, including, including the advantage of additional air support by the United States... 55/n

...which we continue to provide. We flew strikes, several strikes there over just the last 24 to 48 hours. So, we're still supporting them as well and they have advantages that the #Taliban doesn't. And, again, I really think as I said before, when we look back on this... 56/n

...we'll see that it really did come down to leadership, both political and military.

Q: But John, where's the proof? When you say that Afghan Forces have advantages over the #Taliban, we're just not seeing it on the battlefield right now. 57/n

MR. KIRBY: What I mean is they've got greater numbers, they've got an air force, and their air force is also flying. In fact they're flying more strikes, conducting more strikes than the United States is. And it's an air force that we continue to contribute to. We just... 58/n

...gave them another three new Black Hawks. Over the course of 20 years, we've 130 some odd air craft to their inventory. We're still providing contract maintenance support to keep them flying. This is not an incapable or incompetent Air Force. They know how to fight... 59/n

...from the air and they are. They have modern weaponry. They have military organizational ability as well as 20 years of training in the field by not just the United States but our NATO and Allied partners. So they have a lot of advantages... 60/n

...It's really just now about using those advantages.

Q: Last year the Afghan government let 5,000 #Taliban prisoners go free. Has that been helpful? 61/n

MR. KIRBY: I can't speak to what each one of those prisoners did. But obviously we don't want to see people rejoin the fight on behalf of the #Taliban.

Q: Are you seeing some of those prisoners rejoin --

MR. KIRBY: I don't have any intel assessments on that. I don't know. 62/n

Q: Just overall, do you think the previous Admin's pressure to free those prisoners, has that been helpful in the fight against the #Taliban?

MR. KIRBY: What's been helpful against fighting the Taliban is, again, the kinds of support that the Afghan forces have received... 63/n

...from the US and our NATO partners and that support will continue.

Q: Since they want to release some of the prisoners from the jails, #Taliban says we go to Qatar & make peace but they have a condition. To release 5,000 more. I don't know if the Afghan govt are ready to- 64/n

MR. KIRBY: I can't speak to what's going on in negotiations. I mean obviously we don't want to see anybody rejoin the fight on the side of the #Taliban. Obviously that would not be a good outcome.

Q: Is this not the part of the agreement that US sign with them in Doha? 65/n

MR. KIRBY: I'll let my State Department's -- my State Department colleagues speak to the agreement in Doha. Our focus, as I said, is on completing the drawdown, supporting the Afghans when and where we can and making sure we can protect our diplomatic presence. 66/n

Q: Also, #Taliban today warning to #Turkey and they say you're not allowed to come and take security for Kabul Airport -- President Karzai Airport in #Afghanistan. I think Afghan government wanted to -- Turkey to take care of the security of Kabul Airport. 67/n

MR. KIRBY: I haven't seen those comments. As you know we're in discussions with #Turkey about their agreement to take the lead for security at Hamid Karzai International Airport. We're grateful for their willingness to do that and we are continuing to work out with them... 68/n

...what the modalities and the details would be going forward. We obviously anticipate that the United States would be a part of that security posture at the airport. I can't speak to those comments in particular. 69/n

Q: In the last few days President Biden, you, and some of the other Administration officials have stressed the capability of the Afghan forces and said there are about 300,000 of them. Given ghost soldiers, desertions, defections and some of what we've seen on the... 70/n

...battlefield that certainly isn't the case now and hasn't been for some time. In addition, the ones who are left, there are many reports of food, water, ammunition shortages, that sort of thing. Not to put a too fine of point on it but how do you explain that... 71/n

...contradiction and how did the Pentagon fall so short in training forces that are not only capable on a given day but sustainable for a long term? 72/n

MR. KIRBY: I'd challenge the assumption that we fell short over the course of 20 years. I mean we and international partner help fund Afghan national defense and security forces if you include police that numbered as much 352,000. And now can I give you what the role... 73/n

...call and the muster is on any given day, no, I can't. But I can tell you that we're confident that over the course of the 20 years we helped raise any army and police force that numbered over 300,000. Now again, what they're doing on any given day and who's on... 74/n

...the field, that's really a question for our colleagues in Kabul. But I take exception to the notion that somehow over the course of 20 years we simply failed in trying to improve the competency and the capability of Afghan forces when we look at what they're doing today...75/n

...It comes down to leadership on the battlefield and leadership in Kabul and we are not on the battlefield with them. Yes, we're over the battlefield. I understand we are supporting with limited air strikes but we aren't in the field with them now. And so these issues... 76/n

...of leadership are issues that Afghan leaders both military and political have to be able to address.

Q: Doesn't the Pentagon have some culpability in this though? It sounds like you're just passing the buck when you say that. 77/n

MR. KIRBY: No, nobody's passing any bucks. Not at all. I mean we're all watching this with great concern clearly and the whole international community. Certainly our NATO Allies. We're also dutifully involved in combat, lost many lives, lots of sacrifices over the... 78/n

...course of 20 years that we can't forget. Nobody's passing any bucks here. We have worked hard to improve Afghan competency and capability in the field. But at some point, and the President has said this very clearly, at some point that competency and that capability... 79/n

...has to be owned by the Afghans themselves & we are at that point.

Q: When you're talking about decisions that need to be made by the Afghan leadership, today Pres Ghani went to the north where he met with Atta Mohammad Noor & the famous warlord Dostam at Mazar-i-Sharif. 80/n

I'm wondering is that the kind of thing that you want to see the -- the Afghan government doing to unite with the old warlords and militia leaders to fight back the #Taliban? And I have a follow-up. 81/n

MR. KIRBY: We've seen reports of President Ghani's trip. I certainly would let him speak to the conversations he had and what discussions he's having with leaders up in the north. Certainly as the president of his country and the commander-in-chief of his forces... 82/n

...he should make those decisions & have those discussions that he believes are in the best interest of defending his people and his territory.

Q: But is that the kind of think you'd like them to see -- do you think I would be effective for their fight against the #Taliban? 83/n

MR. KIRBY: We're not prescribing specific methods of defense for him. It's his country. He's the commander-in-chief and we're not going to pass a certain judgment about what discussions he's having or what other leaders he's meeting with and what they're saying. I would... 84/n

...defer to President Ghani to speak to his discussions and what the goals were, what the objectives were of his visit. This is, again, he's the commander-in-chief and it's his political leadership, his political will that can make a big difference here. 85/n

Q: Does it surprise you that topic of #Afghanistan did not come up in the telephone call between the Secretary and his Russian counterpart.

MR. KIRBY: We provided a readout and I'm going to leave it at that. I'm not going to go beyond the readout. 86/n

Q: What is the latest conversation between DOD officials and their Turkish counterparts on the Kabul Airport mission? And I have a follow up to that? 87/n

MR. KIRBY: I don't have any specific update for you. We continue to have discussions with the Turks about security at the airport. Obviously, we're mindful that security at the airport is critical for our ability to have a diplomatic presence in #Afghanistan... 88/n

...as well as our Allies and partners. And so, those discussions are ongoing. I don't have any updates for you. 89/n

Q: OK, and I if might we've seen that the #Taliban has alleged that the U.S. has gone back on its agreements with these airstrikes. Has there been any consideration that these airstrikes could be potentially putting the agreed Turkish mission in jeopardy or making it... 90/n

...more challenging or complicated to fulfill?

MR. KIRBY: The airstrikes putting the Turkish mission at more jeopardy?

Q: Because the #Taliban has accused the United States of reneging on its agreement. 91/n

MR. KIRBY: Well look, it's not the United States that continues to exert violence on the Afghan people and attempt to try to find a military solution to what should be a political settlement. It's not the United States that is now using oppression and brutality... 92/n

...and fear to try to gain some level of governance over parts of #Afghanistan. It's not the United States that is trying to undo what the #Taliban have previous said they were committed to, which was, again, a negotiated political solution. We are, as we've said and... 93/n

...we've been fairly honest about it, to the degree we can, continuing to support Afghan forces in the field with the capabilities that we have available to us. 94/n

Q: A lot of what we heard today is frustration, concerns. Some of the questions seem to focus on inevitability of a negative outcome, but what are some of the positives that you are seeing from the Afghan forces right now, and what are some of the positives... 95/n

...that you're seeing from the current U.S. support being provided to the Afghans?

MR. KIRBY: We have seen Afghan forces fight back in certain places. In fact, there's fighting going on as we speak. We have seen the Afghan Air Force be very aggressive... 96/n

...As I've said, they conducted many more strikes in just the last 24 hours than we have. They're professional. They're well trained. And they are in the air. And I would also say, you know, for our perspective, though we are conducting fewer airstrikes, we're very... 97/n

...confident that the strikes we're conducting are hitting the targets they're meant to hit, that they -- that we are being precise, and that we are having an impact at the tactical level. Now clearly from a strategic perspective the #Taliban keep advancing... 98/n

...There is no question about that. But the narrative that in every place in every way the Afghan forces are simply folding up and walking away is not accurate. I am not at all and nobody should take away from this that I'm discounting what we're seeing, a deteriorating... 99/n

...security situation. We've been nothing but candid about that. But to your exact question, there are places and there are times, including today, where Afghan forces in the field are putting up a fight. 100/n

Q: And does that mean that at some point it's possible that the Afghan forces will be strong enough to reconstitute themselves so that they could potentially take back...? 101/n

MR. KIRBY: Well, we certainly would like to see that eventuality. As I've said many times before, no outcome is inevitable here. & the Afghan forces, they do have the capacity to do exactly that. It's really about the will & the leadership on the field to make that happen...102/n

...& that's not uncommon in any military. Equipment, training, all of that is important, but it is often for naught if you don't have the leadership and the will to use those advantages to your benefit. 103/n

Q: But at this point, have the Afghan forces recaptured any terrain that was taken by the #Taliban? 104/n

MR. KIRBY: I will tell you that without getting into a battlefield assessment, because I don't want to do that. As we speak, there are places in #Afghanistan which are actively being contested right now. END 105/105