Charles Lister Profile picture
Aug 15, 2021 13 tweets 16 min read Read on X
NEW - #Taliban prepping for a conference inside #Afghanistan's Presidential Palace.

Reports said they planned to re-proclaim the Islamic Emirate of #Afghanistan.
During the AJA-televised conference, one #Taliban commander (is that Mullah Zakir?) says he spent 8yrs in #Guantanamo.

A clear salt-in-wound moment for the U.S.
One #Taliban commander speaking from #Afghanistan's Presidential Palace says #Taliban forces have been "coordinating with" U.S. officials today, amid their entry into #Kabul.
4 months ago, 3,000 U.S. troops were in #Afghanistan -- the ANDF was tenaciously fighting & holding almost all frontlines.

Today, 6,000 U.S. troops have returned -- 100% of #Afghanistan has fallen to the #Taliban & #NATO forces are desperately evacuating their citizens for good.
Taking into consideration all the prisons captured & emptied over the past 2 weeks, it'd seem reasonable to say that 1,000s of #Taliban fighters & 100s of #AlQaeda & #ISIS operatives have found freedom in #Afghanistan.

AQ (AQ & AQIS ) in particular given new life lately.
Now that the U.S. has disengaged from #Afghanistan & 99% of intelligence networks have been dissolved, U.S. officials are suggesting #AlQaeda could regenerate "much faster than expected."

... No sh*t Sherlock.

apnews.com/article/joe-bi…
1,000s of Afghans are stuck at #Kabul Airport desperate to get on a flight out of #Afghanistan -- but U.S. forces stopped civilian flights today for security reasons.

Multiple reports of injuries amid desperate runs on gates, while U.S. troops have been firing into the air.
This plane took off from #Kabul this morning reportedly carrying more than x5 the number of people it’s designed to — some of those left behind tied themselves to the rear & fell off after takeoff.

I have no words. #Afghanistan

As #Kabul awoke to its first full day of #Taliban rule since 2001, @clarissaward of @CNN is reporting from the streets — extraordinary reporting from the very best in the business:

@clarissaward @CNN “It’s very easy to say #Trump set us up for this & we’re just simply following through, but any responsible leader who was listening to all of the advice he was getting would have taken a more measured approach.”

- My comments to @nwadhams
of @business:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@clarissaward @CNN @nwadhams @business When the US announced withdrawal, the #UK pushed #NATO states to form a new coalition to stay in #Afghanistan -- nobody agreed.

"This wasn't the right time or decision to make, of course, #AlQaeda will come back," #UK Defense Secretary @BWallaceMP said.

theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…
@clarissaward @CNN @nwadhams @business @BWallaceMP The amount of weaponry captured by the #Taliban in recent weeks is mind-boggling.

Yesterday, they got EMB 314 Super Tucanos, worth ~$10 million each.

This video shows a single (enormous) haul of U.S.-made M16s, M4s & crates of Berettas.

@clarissaward @CNN @nwadhams @business @BWallaceMP What does the collapse of #Afghanistan into #Taliban rule mean for terrorism & counterterrorism going forward?

Here’s some rapid-fire thoughts on my mind, for @MiddleEastInst & @MEI_CTE:

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More from @Charles_Lister

Oct 11
According to local reporting, ~25,000 Syrians have fled #Lebanon & sought refugee in opposition-held NW #Syria, via the Aoun al-Dadat crossing in #Jarablus.

Getting to Aoun al-Dadat from #Lebanon's border with #Syria costs ~$500 per person in "fees." 🧵 Image
That $500 of "fees" goes to a network of #Assad regime militias & the 4th Division -- to (1) enter #Syria & (2) pass through a web of checkpoints into #SDF-held territory northeast of #Aleppo.

For 25,000 people? That's $12.5 million of extortion revenue.
Once at Aoun al-Dadat crossing, refugees were initially preyed upon by a criminal gang demanding $20-$50 per person for expedited entry into opposition-held northern #Aleppo.

That criminality has since been squashed; the formal crossing fee is ~$15.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 30
An #Israel ground incursion -- while predictable & understandable -- is the first time that #Hezbollah will perceive a potential opportunity to level the playing field.

While the group can't defend against precision strikes, it can fight on the ground.
#Hezbollah will hope to respond asymmetrically -- relying on tunnels & other covert infrastructure to target #IDF troops with ATGMs, snipers & potentially attempts to 'snatch & grab' hostages.

#Israel's intel will need to be solid.
By launching at night, #Israel has the advantage -- but #Hezbollah brought effective night-vision use into the #Syria theater as early as 2013. It's not incapable of operating at night, and the territory is its backyard.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 30
Interesting -- #Russia says U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been flying over [#Assad-held] al-Sukhna in #Homs in recent days & on July 27, they nearly collided with Russian jets.

Treat the latter with skepticism, but ISR over Sukhna is significant -- a 🧵.
#Syria's airspace is delineated by deconfliction lines (i.e. defined areas of responsibility), agreed upon by #Russia & U.S.

CENTCOM has been increasingly concerned about #ISIS's recovery in the #Assad-held central desert & al-Sukhna has been key to that.
It's an open secret that subtle US ISR & occasional unacknowledged night-time SOF actions take place in the #Assad-held badiya -- but for #Russia to highlight MQ-9s being an issue is illustrative of (a) an increase amid (b) a failed regime "clearance operation."
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
Gathering from media reports, statements & leaks, #Israel's response to #Hezbollah's deadly attack on #MajdalShams is coming & it'll be bigger than anything we've seen in #Lebanon since October 2023.

It's a matter of time; a brief 🧵:
#Israel has already gone after key #Hezbollah operational 'HVTs' -- but not *the* leadership. #Beirut remains untouched (as does airport) & #Hezbollah's network of military bases, facilities & missile depots further north. Such strategic targets seem likely.
The key will be hitting #Hezbollah where it hurts, without triggering an existential response & a cycle of uncontrollable escalation -- a hard balance to strike.

Neither side wants all-out war, yes -- but domestically, #Israel has to & will escalate next.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1
#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.

3 #IRGC-QF Generals:

- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)

Image
Image
Image
Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.

It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.

Could that now change?

Or will #Iran hit targets in the #KRG again?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.

From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.

Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.

BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here:

foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/27/isi…
Read 5 tweets

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