There are too many good reasons for the #Taliban to act in line with whatever they’ve publicly stated. Contrary to the propaganda machine of the previous degenerate regime & supporters, the Taliban have to deliver to its #Afghanistan people. This is only possible by enabling
an environment of peace and reconciliation that Taliban are promising with their forgiving all the collaborators of the Ghani kleptocracy, which had taken poverty level from 35% to 55% of the population. The Taliban will not have the dollar that previous puppet regimes had to
provide a glitz of a consumption oriented economy. They’ll instead have to contend immediately with a liquidity crunch as dollar flow stops & the corrupt money makes its way out of the country. This is likely to have a deflationary impact, especially in Kabul, where assets price
may fall and there is likely to be negative wealth effect. It’s almost the opposite of QE, which should be inters for economists but painful for the people. It’ll undoubtedly pose a challenge to new government as they’ll be blamed for the sudden downturn in general well-being
It’s hoped that this likely downturn doesn’t force the Taliban to coercive measures to maintain control, although the temptation will be there to do so. If it does so, it’ll be playing into the hands who don’t want to believe its positive promises regarding HR and media freedom
It’ll also put in place a vicious cycle downwards where coercion feeds into Investments staying away.

On the other hand if the the Taliban can explain the reality to the people and see this through, the best prospect they have to maintaining popularity that enabled their
incredible victory - comprising a patchwork of tribal alliances, rural population support, and regional interest in connectivity and trade - is institute a free economy and as a free as society as is practicably possible within the framework of Sharia and their ideology
The top leadership have promised exactly that. It’s also worth remembering that most of this leadership either were not around in the earlier Taliban apparition. Even a few were in that regime they were junior functionaries. Also it has to understood that most of new leadership
have spent considerable time in international centres of trade and finance. To put it simply they’re well exposed to the way the world works. Most realise that they can’t have functioning economy by caning women and keeping this half of the population locked up in their houses
The economic incentives for them to act in a manner that’s ‘progressive’, albeit with the context of their ideology, far outweigh those that should compel them towards draconically regressive tendencies.
The power of Homo economicus should never be underestimated. If it can persuade the communist regime in China to institute one of the most capitalists economies in the world, it’s very possible for the same rational decision making processes to compel the Taliban to have a much
more open society than many are willing to give them credit for presently. Time and again in the last few months the prognostications of western and other media commentators on have events pan out in Afghanistan have been shown to be based on lazy assumptions and completely flaws
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that their pronouncements of how the Taliban rule may also surprise them. It is hoped they not only prove their detractors wrong but provide a dispensation that serves the Afghanistan people to enjoy peace, prosperity, and freedoms

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More from @javedhassan

14 Aug
The final chapter still has to be written. As we come to the dénouement there are still strands in the complex web of subplots that may not yet be apparent. However, its now clear that most journalists & DC think tanks have been clueless about the game actually being played out
While many of the ‘expert’ prognosticators have been hyperventilating about an impending protracted civil war and painting the gory picture of blood strewn streets, the Taliban have been quietly negotiating with traditional power brokers the transfer of power in city after city
When wishful thinking takes over ground realities then it’s possible to imagine India playing a major a role in post US exit scenario’because ‘it’s invested $3bn in Afghanistan’. The fact it’s done with the soon to be jettisoned Ghani kleptocracy is ignored from such analysis
Read 10 tweets
13 Aug
Y’all naysayers & doubting Thomas’s who so very much wish for bad news on Pakistan economy, read this & despair. I estimate full yr FY21 GDP growth likely to be revised up from 3.8% to 4.5% on the back revised PBS full year FY21 LSM grwth now estimated at 14.85% v -9.78% for FY20
Read 4 tweets
11 Aug
There are opinionators here so dislocated from reality in their rarified quarters that they confuse Pakistanis detestation for the elite Kabul kleptocracy as love for the Taliban. There’s none! Nothing would please them more than the demise Ghani and his rotten puppet regime
Maybe such intellectuals may enjoy breaking bread with those who vilify Pakistan in the most foul manner from the pedestal of National Security office and even their Presidency, but most ordinary Pakistanis will have no truck with such filth. And yes have no good wishes fir them.
Maybe such brilliant essayist have no qualms about the Kabuli elite nefarious intrigues with the Indians against the peace and happiness of Pakistanis. Maybe they’re even ok with the tragedy of APS perpetuated at the behest of Afghani NDS by their TTP dogs
Read 6 tweets
30 May
Doubt being cast on NAC’s provisional GDP growth estimate of 3.94% because “Electricity generation & distribution and Gas distribution” is down 22.96%. The formula used in national accounts for power: Power generation + (subsidies x deflator). However this is subsidies are
GDP is correlated to actual Power Units sold. Historically growth in power units sold is about 1.25-1.5 times the real GDP growth. Given that in the the first 10 moths of this months units sold has grown YoY 6.91%, it would suggest growth of of about 4.6-5.5% GDP growth
So if anything the provisional 3.94% figure maybe low balling the actual GDP growth as many independent analysts suspect. The full year LSM is almost certainly going to be significantly higher than NAC estimate of 9%. Also we shall find IMF and WB will be revising the numbers
Read 9 tweets
30 May
Iss Saal (2021) Na ahal, Na laik hukumat ki kahGarThaGee:

1. GDP Growth 4%

2. Exports - $3.2B in March 2021, highest ever in a month

3. Goods Export - $21B in 10 months, projected to reach all time high above $25B

4. Textile Export - $1.4B in Dec 2020, highest ever in a month
Aur Soon Yeh in Selected Hakumraan ki Na Kaamee:

5. Reserves - $23B, Highest since 2016

6. Remittances - Will cross $27B, above $2B from 11 months

7. Current Account - In Surplus of $773M after 10 years

8. Large Scale Manufacturing - 9% ⬆️, Highest ever index in Jan 2021
Aur lee yeh PTI gormint ki Taba Hee:

9.FBR Revenue = 14% ⬆️ YoY, 30%⬆️ since 2018

10. Primary Balance - Rs 450 surplus, first time in decades

11. Social Spending (Ehsaas)- Doubled since 2018

12. External Debt - Lowest increase in 6 years in FY2021
Read 10 tweets
10 May
If GoP decides to dig the largest hole in the world without purpose that too will contribute to GDP growth. lt’ll need excavators, big trucks, explosives, and create many jobs whilst digging. However, on completion if the giant hole generates not much to sell, it’ll soon fill up
The hole & all the activity around digging it will soon enough get forgotten, but the interest on the loan & principle itself the government borrowed, domestically & internationally (FX to buy specialised equipment) will still have to paid back. The jobs would have disappeared
Few will remember the hole but all will’ve to pay for many years to come. While digging it the government would have been able to boast about how GDP growth had gone up during its tenure, but future government’s growth will be restricted by the loans they have to pay for the hole
Read 4 tweets

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