New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep… 
People love to nitpick the crosstabs of SurveyUSA polls, but you can always find weirdness in crosstabs. (Think about how weirdness created by differential privacy doesn't discredit the whole census.) Instead, the July outlier was probably just due to the confusing LV screen.
*Not July, sorry, it was actually August 2-4.
That said, this new poll isn't perfect: replacement candidate John Drake is misidentified as "John Blake."
Not as big of a shift as I'd guessed, but No's lead has now widened to 5.6 points in our average. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-rec…
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