The two new proposed congressional maps for Oregon are now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The first map, Plan A, was proposed by Democrats, and you can see why. It would make a 5-1 map quite likely. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The second map, Plan B, was proposed by Republicans. It would keep the competitiveness of the current districts AND make the new #OR06 swingy as well. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The Democratic map more accurately reflects Oregon's likely-Dem partisanship. But it is not competitive at all; the GOP map is much more responsive to the national environment.
Feels like there's a compromise to be reached here that doesn't go so far out of its way to create winnable districts for the GOP but also doesn't turn a light blue state into a 5-1 state. We'll see.

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More from @baseballot

31 Aug
New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Read 7 tweets
24 Aug
Voters don't fit neatly into "lanes," part 356:

Eric Adams voters' 2nd choices in the #NYCmayor race:

No 2nd choice 21%
Maya Wiley 20%
Andrew Yang 15%
Kathryn Garcia 12%
Ray McGuire 9%
Scott Stringer 8%
Wiley voters' 2nd choices:

Garcia 30%
Dianne Morales 20%
Adams 13%
Stringer 11%
No 2nd choice 6%
Yang 5%

#NYCmayor
Garcia voters' 2nd choices:

Wiley 27%
Stringer 17%
Adams 15%
Yang 14%
Donovan 10%
No 2nd choice 5%

#NYCmayor
Read 6 tweets
28 Jul
Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)
First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)
Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
21 Jun
Want to understand the #NYCmayor election results like a local?

🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁

Introducing the FIVE POLITICAL BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY! fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
Read 7 tweets
14 May
In justifying its decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court writes, "It is wholly within the realm of possibility that the drafters foresaw or even hoped for a drop in congressional representation that would render the ballot-initiative process unworkable." courts.ms.gov/Images/Opinion…
Read 6 tweets
29 Mar
Looks like this map is from just before the 2019 season: seatgeek.com/tba/articles/w…

Which of course means that @NateSilver538's definition of New England is probably just Suffolk and Middlesex counties now, post-Mookie trade.
On the other hand, this might legitimately be the most recent map of MLB fandom we have... That @UpshotNYT tour de force is somehow 7 years old now. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 4 tweets

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