The Democratic map more accurately reflects Oregon's likely-Dem partisanship. But it is not competitive at all; the GOP map is much more responsive to the national environment.
Feels like there's a compromise to be reached here that doesn't go so far out of its way to create winnable districts for the GOP but also doesn't turn a light blue state into a 5-1 state. We'll see.
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New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)
First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)
Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)
1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
In justifying its decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court writes, "It is wholly within the realm of possibility that the drafters foresaw or even hoped for a drop in congressional representation that would render the ballot-initiative process unworkable." courts.ms.gov/Images/Opinion…
Which of course means that @NateSilver538's definition of New England is probably just Suffolk and Middlesex counties now, post-Mookie trade.
On the other hand, this might legitimately be the most recent map of MLB fandom we have... That @UpshotNYT tour de force is somehow 7 years old now. nytimes.com/interactive/20…