Tweet

Jon Worth

5 Sep, 10 tweets, 3 min read

🥁 Meine Diagramme sind ZURÜCK! 🥁

Aber diesmal nicht #BrexitDiagram, sondern eine neue Serie zur Bundestagswahl - #BTW21 und die Diagrammserie wird den Tag #BTW21Diagramm verwenden

Hier ist die erste Version!

Erklärt in der 🧵

@drawio

Ich werde dieses Diagramm bis zur Wahl aktualisieren, bei Bedarf auch darüber hinaus

Hochauflösende PDF- und PNG-Dateien der Diagramme auf englisch und auf deutsch, das @drawio XML und die .ods-Datei für die Berechnungen werden immer verfügbar sein:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm

Die Diagramme sollen verdeutlichen, welche Koalitionsregierung Deutschland nach der Wahl voraussichtlich bekommen wird und wer damit voraussichtlich Bundeskanzler wird

Verhandlungen sind wahrscheinlich zeitaufwändig und komplex...

Schlagzeilenzahlen

SPD 🔴 + Grüne 🟢 + FDP 🟡 (🚦Koalition)
32 % Chance

SPD 🔴 + Union ⚫️ (Große Koalition, SPD stärker)
22% Chance

Union ⚫️ + Grüne 🟢 + FDP 🟡 (🇯🇲 Koalition)
18% Chance

SPD 🔴 + Grüne 🟢 + Linke 🔴 (R2G-Koalition)
9% Chance

Nichts funktioniert - Neuwahl oder Minderheitsregierung
8% Chance

SPD 🔴 + Union ⚫️ + Grüne 🟢 (🇰🇪 Koalition)
5% Chance

Union ⚫️ + SPD 🔴 + FDP 🟡 (🇩🇪 Koalition)
4% Chance

Union ⚫️ + SPD 🔴 (Große Koalition, Union stärker)
2% Chance

Und der nächste Bundeskanzler...

Scholz 🔴 68% Chance
Laschet ⚫️ 24% Chance
Keines oder Chaos 8% Chance

Die Vorhersagearbeit von The Economist economist.com/graphic-detail… sowie die neuesten Umfragen haben dieses Diagramm beeinflusst, ebenso wie Aussagen von Parteichefs und einige fundierte Vermutungen

Die Komplexität der Erstellung dieses Diagramms bedeutet, dass ich einige Annahmen gemacht habe. Ich gehe davon aus, dass alle 3-Parteienkoalitionen, die ich bespreche, tatsächlich mathematisch möglich sein werden.

Ich habe auch im Wesentlichen nur 3 Runden der Koalitionsbildung abgedeckt ... es können noch mehr sein!

Kritik und Feedback sind wie immer sehr willkommen - und am besten nach dem Motto "Du vermisst hier deswegen eine Zeile" oder "diese Wahrscheinlichkeit sollte aus diesem Grund anders sein" statt "Du liegst falsch" - letzteres hilft nicht viel!

/Ende

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @jonworth

Jon Worth

@jonworth

14 Sep

@pmdfoster

This UK Government press release about controls and Brexit! 🤯

Link via @pmdfoster
gov.uk/government/new…

I'll decrypt each bit in the thread 🧵

Title: "Government sets out pragmatic new timetable for introducing border controls"

What we set out to do before was not practical. And we want to lodge it in your minds we're not ideologues.

Emphasis box:
"- Revised timetable will give businesses more time to adjust to new processes"

Revised timetable will give government more time to complete the truck parks

"- Global pandemic has affected supply chains in the UK and across Europe"

IT'S NOT BREXIT! Err it is...

Read 11 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

9 Sep

Maybe it’ll be better when I get to Brussels but jeez this first regular business trip in 18 months is frustrating… because it feels I’m wasting time

First the good: my ICE train is on time, very empty, % mask 😷 wearing is good, and I have coffee

But the bad: my alarm went at 5am. I’ve only got to Hagen.

Were I to have flown instead my mood and morals would be even worse, although perhaps I’d have the sense of making more progress

Read 7 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

5 Sep

🥁 It's been a while... but my diagrams are BACK! 🥁

But this time not #BrexitDiagram, but a new series about the German Bundestag Election - #BTW21 and the diagram series will be #BTW21Diagramm

Here's the first version!

Explained in the 🧵

@drawio

I will update this diagram up until the 26th September election, and even beyond as well if necessary

High resolution PDF and PNG files of the diagrams in English and German, the @drawio XML, and .ods file for the calculations, will always be available:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm

The diagram aims to illustrate what coalition government Germany is likely to get after the election and - by extension of that - who is likely to be Chancellor

Negotiations are likely to be time consuming and complex...

Read 10 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

4 Sep

@Scroggie

🎉 Those 💉💉 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 can now prove their vaccination status using QR codes! FINALLY! The system started yesterday...
bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…

But how useful is this to prove vaccination status when travelling anywhere?

This morning @Scroggie and I set about working it out!

🧵

Right now, UK as a whole is *still* not fully in EU Digital COVID Pass scheme - even though it applied at the end of July:
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

This means that if NHS 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 QR codes are to work in other countries, those countries have to unilaterally update their apps

The GOOD NEWS

If you're 💉💉 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and have the QR codes, these will ✅ verify in 🇮🇪 Digital COVID Cert checker app.digitalcovidcertchecker.gov.ie and 🇧🇪 CovidScanBE app - 🤖 play.google.com/store/apps/det… and iOS apps.apple.com/us/app/covidsc…

Read 9 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

17 Aug

So...

I am trying to sort out a Ljubljana - Berlin train trip end of September, and want to do it Ljubljana - Villach, stay the night there, then continue north the following day

The best bet: a💺on EN 40414

But how?

Deutsche Bahn tells me that EN 40414 runs every day, and that it has seats in 2nd class

D. 21:10 Ljubljana
A. 22:49 Villach Hbf

Vagonweb confirms this - 3 seating carriages as far as Villach at least, one of them just Zagreb-Villach Hbf
vagonweb.cz/razeni/vlak.ph…

Read 10 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

12 Aug

Having seen the bad recent #BTW21 polling for CDU-CSU (Union) in the news, I've updated my Excel table based on the latest numbers...

This is based on the *average* of all polls in August so far

Currently *NO* 2 party coalition is possible

This is because the Grüne are stable, Union are slipping, and SPD and FDP gradually gaining

In a couple of polls Grüne + SPD + Linke is enough for a majority, but based on the average for August so far, this isn't (yet?) sure

That means 4 3-party coalitions are currently possible

⚫️🟢🟡 - 🇯🇲 coalition
⚫️🟢🔴 - 🇰🇪 coalition
⚫️🔴🟡 - 🇩🇪 coalition
🟢🔴🟡 - 🚦 coalition
(names of the coalitions based on the colours of the parties involved)

Read 4 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!