Thread by @jonworth

🥁 It's been a while... but my diagrams are BACK! 🥁

But this time not #BrexitDiagram, but a new series about the German Bundestag Election - #BTW21 and the diagram series will be #BTW21Diagramm

Here's the first version!

Explained in the 🧵

I will update this diagram up until the 26th September election, and even beyond as well if necessary

High resolution PDF and PNG files of the diagrams in English and German, the @drawio XML, and .ods file for the calculations, will always be available:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm

The diagram aims to illustrate what coalition government Germany is likely to get after the election and - by extension of that - who is likely to be Chancellor

Negotiations are likely to be time consuming and complex...

Headline figures

SPD 🔴 + Grüne 🟢 + FDP 🟡 (🚦coalition)
32% chance

SPD 🔴 + Union ⚫️ (Grand Coalition, SPD larger)
22% chance

Union ⚫️ + Grüne 🟢 + FDP 🟡 (🇯🇲 coalition)
18% chance

SPD 🔴 + Grüne 🟢 + Linke 🔴 (R2G coalition)
9% chance

Nothing works - new election or minority government
8% chance

SPD 🔴 + Union ⚫️ + Grüne 🟢 (🇰🇪 coalition)
5% chance

Union ⚫️ + SPD 🔴 + FDP 🟡 (🇩🇪 coalition)
4% chance

Union ⚫️ + SPD 🔴 (Grand Coalition, Union larger)
2% chance

And for Chancellor...

Scholz 🔴 68% chance
Laschet ⚫️ 24% chance
Neither, or a mess 8% chance

The prediction work done by The Economist economist.com/graphic-detail… as well as latest polling has informed this diagram, as have statements by leaders and some educated guessing

The complexity of making this diagram means some corners were inevitably cut - I had to assume that all the three party coalitions I discuss are actually going to be mathematically possible, and I have only essentially covered 3 rounds of making a coalition... there may be more!

As ever critique and feedback is very welcome - and best structured along the lines of "you're missing a line here, because of that" or "that probability ought to be different for this reason", rather than "you're wrong" - the latter doesn't help much!

/ends

(oh and I am sorry this is so damned ugly... I might try to improve it aesthetically in the 2nd version!)