🥁 It's been a while... but my diagrams are BACK! 🥁

But this time not #BrexitDiagram, but a new series about the German Bundestag Election - #BTW21 and the diagram series will be #BTW21Diagramm

Here's the first version!

Explained in the 🧵
I will update this diagram up until the 26th September election, and even beyond as well if necessary

High resolution PDF and PNG files of the diagrams in English and German, the @drawio XML, and .ods file for the calculations, will always be available:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm
The diagram aims to illustrate what coalition government Germany is likely to get after the election and - by extension of that - who is likely to be Chancellor

Negotiations are likely to be time consuming and complex...
Headline figures

SPD 🔴 + Grüne 🟢 + FDP 🟡 (🚦coalition)
32% chance

SPD 🔴 + Union ⚫️ (Grand Coalition, SPD larger)
22% chance

Union ⚫️ + Grüne 🟢 + FDP 🟡 (🇯🇲 coalition)
18% chance

SPD 🔴 + Grüne 🟢 + Linke 🔴 (R2G coalition)
9% chance
Nothing works - new election or minority government
8% chance

SPD 🔴 + Union ⚫️ + Grüne 🟢 (🇰🇪 coalition)
5% chance

Union ⚫️ + SPD 🔴 + FDP 🟡 (🇩🇪 coalition)
4% chance

Union ⚫️ + SPD 🔴 (Grand Coalition, Union larger)
2% chance
And for Chancellor...

Scholz 🔴 68% chance
Laschet ⚫️ 24% chance
Neither, or a mess 8% chance
The prediction work done by The Economist economist.com/graphic-detail… as well as latest polling has informed this diagram, as have statements by leaders and some educated guessing
The complexity of making this diagram means some corners were inevitably cut - I had to assume that all the three party coalitions I discuss are actually going to be mathematically possible, and I have only essentially covered 3 rounds of making a coalition... there may be more!
As ever critique and feedback is very welcome - and best structured along the lines of "you're missing a line here, because of that" or "that probability ought to be different for this reason", rather than "you're wrong" - the latter doesn't help much!

/ends
(oh and I am sorry this is so damned ugly... I might try to improve it aesthetically in the 2nd version!)

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More from @jonworth

14 Sep
This UK Government press release about controls and Brexit! 🤯

Link via @pmdfoster
gov.uk/government/new…

I'll decrypt each bit in the thread 🧵
Title: "Government sets out pragmatic new timetable for introducing border controls"

What we set out to do before was not practical. And we want to lodge it in your minds we're not ideologues.
Emphasis box:
"- Revised timetable will give businesses more time to adjust to new processes"

Revised timetable will give government more time to complete the truck parks

"- Global pandemic has affected supply chains in the UK and across Europe"

IT'S NOT BREXIT! Err it is...
Read 11 tweets
9 Sep
Maybe it’ll be better when I get to Brussels but jeez this first regular business trip in 18 months is frustrating… because it feels I’m wasting time
First the good: my ICE train is on time, very empty, % mask 😷 wearing is good, and I have coffee
But the bad: my alarm went at 5am. I’ve only got to Hagen.

Were I to have flown instead my mood and morals would be even worse, although perhaps I’d have the sense of making more progress
Read 7 tweets
5 Sep
🥁 Meine Diagramme sind ZURÜCK! 🥁

Aber diesmal nicht #BrexitDiagram, sondern eine neue Serie zur Bundestagswahl - #BTW21 und die Diagrammserie wird den Tag #BTW21Diagramm verwenden

Hier ist die erste Version!

Erklärt in der 🧵
Ich werde dieses Diagramm bis zur Wahl aktualisieren, bei Bedarf auch darüber hinaus

Hochauflösende PDF- und PNG-Dateien der Diagramme auf englisch und auf deutsch, das @drawio XML und die .ods-Datei für die Berechnungen werden immer verfügbar sein:
jonworth.eu/BTW21Diagramm
Die Diagramme sollen verdeutlichen, welche Koalitionsregierung Deutschland nach der Wahl voraussichtlich bekommen wird und wer damit voraussichtlich Bundeskanzler wird

Verhandlungen sind wahrscheinlich zeitaufwändig und komplex...
Read 10 tweets
4 Sep
🎉 Those 💉💉 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 can now prove their vaccination status using QR codes! FINALLY! The system started yesterday...
bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…

But how useful is this to prove vaccination status when travelling anywhere?

This morning @Scroggie and I set about working it out!

🧵
Right now, UK as a whole is *still* not fully in EU Digital COVID Pass scheme - even though it applied at the end of July:
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

This means that if NHS 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 QR codes are to work in other countries, those countries have to unilaterally update their apps
The GOOD NEWS

If you're 💉💉 in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 and have the QR codes, these will ✅ verify in 🇮🇪 Digital COVID Cert checker app.digitalcovidcertchecker.gov.ie and 🇧🇪 CovidScanBE app - 🤖 play.google.com/store/apps/det… and iOS apps.apple.com/us/app/covidsc…
Read 9 tweets
17 Aug
So...

I am trying to sort out a Ljubljana - Berlin train trip end of September, and want to do it Ljubljana - Villach, stay the night there, then continue north the following day

The best bet: a💺on EN 40414

But how?
Deutsche Bahn tells me that EN 40414 runs every day, and that it has seats in 2nd class

D. 21:10 Ljubljana
A. 22:49 Villach Hbf
Vagonweb confirms this - 3 seating carriages as far as Villach at least, one of them just Zagreb-Villach Hbf
vagonweb.cz/razeni/vlak.ph…
Read 10 tweets
12 Aug
Having seen the bad recent #BTW21 polling for CDU-CSU (Union) in the news, I've updated my Excel table based on the latest numbers...

This is based on the *average* of all polls in August so far
Currently *NO* 2 party coalition is possible

This is because the Grüne are stable, Union are slipping, and SPD and FDP gradually gaining

In a couple of polls Grüne + SPD + Linke is enough for a majority, but based on the average for August so far, this isn't (yet?) sure
That means 4 3-party coalitions are currently possible

⚫️🟢🟡 - 🇯🇲 coalition
⚫️🟢🔴 - 🇰🇪 coalition
⚫️🔴🟡 - 🇩🇪 coalition
🟢🔴🟡 - 🚦 coalition
(names of the coalitions based on the colours of the parties involved)
Read 4 tweets

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