Decent, stable work and income are obviously critical for most people. Politicians know it, so they're all trying to look like friends of the workers. But which policies would help & which would hurt? Follow this thread for my takes from tonight's #Elxn44 debate. @CntrFutureWork
Phasing out fossil fuels over 20 yrs = a shift of 8000 jobs per year. Retirement absorbs over ½ of those. We could offer full adjustment packages for the others ($250K each) at a cost of $1b/year. Denying the transition doesn't help; starting early does. centreforfuturework.ca/2021/01/18/emp…
Mr. O'Toole's low carbon savings accounts have not been costed, no-one knows how this would work. #Elxn44#cdnpoli
Canada's economy is *not* heavily dependent on fossil fuel extraction. Share of total employment in direct fossil fuel work has fallen well below 1% since 2014. centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…#Elxn44#cdnpoli
Even the oil companies know there won't be another petroleum jobs boom: they are taking current profits and giving it out as dividends or share buybacks, not reinvesting. financialpost.com/commodities/en…#Elxn44#cdnpoli
Mr. O'Toole proposes an unusual solution for seniors who can't live off their pension income: give them an incentive (WITB) to keep working. ??? 🤔
Mr. O'Toole mentions monetary policy. Emulating Mr. Poilievre (his jobs critic), the CPC denounces the Bank of Cda's "money printing". What would stopping QE mean for: 1. Bank of Cda independence 2. Interest rates 3. Future & job-creation bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #Elxn44#cdnpoli
Cancelling the national early childhood education plan would be a huge blow to job-creation & labour market participation. #Elxn44#cdnpoli
In discussing the cost of living, will any leader mention that the Bank of Canada has undercut its inflation target (2%) twice as often as exceeding it? Core inflation is still below 2%. Suppressing inflation also means suppressing jobs. rabble.ca/columnists/202…#Elxn44#cdnpoli
Mr. O’Toole often speaks of a looming debt crisis and “getting finances under control.” But his own platform spends more than the PBO baseline. He wants it both ways: scare voters about the deficit, but still make expensive promises. globalnews.ca/news/8160060/c… #Elxn44#cdnpoli
Here's the (non) crisis in Canada's finances under COVID: federal debt service charges still fell as a share of GDP. Federal government showed it has the power to mobilize huge resources to protect jobs & incomes. There's ample room to do more. #Elxn44#cdnpoli
Labour shortages?? I don't think so. 1.5 million unemployed, 1.5 million more underutilized. #Elxn44#cdnpoli
OK that's a wrap. Personally I found the format frustrating: it didn't allow a substantive dive into the economics. Thanks for your interest in the labour issues at stake in this campaign! Check out centreforfuturework.ca for more research on jobs & incomes during & after COVID.
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THREAD: I will be live-tweeting on labour & employment issues from the #Elxn44 English debate this evening. My impressions and fact checks will draw on recent @CntrFutureWork research into several of the topics that should come up tonight, including:
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a) The economic & employment benefits of universal ECE: centreforfuturework.ca/2020/11/25/chi…. We found a national plan would create over 200K jobs in ECE itself, 80K in supply industries, and support up to 725K more FTE female labour force participants. A big boost to post-COVID recovery
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b) The need for pro-active & supported transition planning for workers in fossil fuel industries: centreforfuturework.ca/2021/01/18/emp…. Pretending the transition isn't happening doesn't help the 50K who've already lost work, without support. Will the next govt implement a genuine plan?
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I'm gobsmacked by the interview just now on @cbcasithappens with the manager of Nashville North, a private nightclub on the Stampede grounds in Calgary. His explanation of their privatized health protection plan (allowed now Kenney has lifted all restrictions) was horrifying: ..2
* Club will operate at full capacity, no masks required
* Entrants must either show a facsimile of a COVID vaccination (just 1 shot required, not 2) or take a rapid COVID test
* Both of those are obviously very unreliable (efficacy of 1 shot against COVID variants is risky) ..3
* The manager boasted about being 1st venue in Cda to require COVID vaccination proof as condition of entry. This system will not do that, however. Any teenager knows it's easy to provide fake physical ID, let alone fake an image of a document on a phone ..4
THREAD "Heartbreaking" is the only word I can find to describe today's awful 🇨🇦 #LFS jobs numbers: both the scale of job loss, and their painfully unfair distribution. 213K jobs lost in January, back to August levels of employment, unemployment, and participation. #cdnecon ...2
Just like the first wave, job loss is concentrated among those who can least afford it. Part-timers lost all the jobs; full-timers gained work. Women lost work twice as fast as men. Temporary jobs disappeared 7 times faster than permanent. Youth (under 25) lost work 4x faster...3
The racial concentration of economic hardship mirrors the racial inequity of COVID infection. Unemployment among racialized communities is twice or more as high as for whites. 20% for SE Asian, 16% for black & Latinx. ...4
Apart from the calculated brutality of this view, think what it would mean for prison guards & medical staff who work in prisons (which have suffered many horrible outbreaks). O'Toole's cheap politicking would consign those workers to death along with the prisoners. #Shameless
Here are some questions I really hope reporters will ask today: 1. To Theresa Tam and other PHO's: Why do you think prisoners should get the vaccine, and what are the health risks to the PUBLIC if they are not vaccinated?
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2. To legal experts: What are the constitutional, civil, and even criminal risks of denying essential health care to prisoners, and what are the financial risks to the federal govt if courts should rule against this policy?
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Before people go into paroxysms of deficit-angst today, keep in mind a fundamental truth of economic accounting: one sector's deficit is another's surplus. By pumping billions into income supports & business subsidies, fed govt literally made us richer #FiscalUpdate#cdnpoli ..2
Household saving grew dramatically during the pandemic: partly because shopping was hard, but mostly because fed income supports & wage subsidies protected incomes. Business saving also grew (less dramatically). Graph shows change in quarterly net savings from 4Q19 to 2Q20. ...3
Without that huge injection (and corresponding deficit), households would have experienced much bigger losses, with resulting macro-economic destruction: collapsed spending, evictions, worse job loss. Best of all: negative real interest rates mean it cost govt nothing.
THREAD: Today's Retirement Income report has a long discussion about whether changes in the super guarantee are automatically passed through in offsetting change in wages. Here's the graph the report claims proves that workers pay for their own super through wage cuts: ...2
What that graph *actually* says is that something between 30% and 145% of changes in SG are reflected in offsetting changes in future wage growth. Yes, you read it right: it could be 145%: that is, if super goes up, your wages will fall by 1.45 times as much. Not clear why ...3
Our research last year found no evidence of a systematic wage/SG trade-off in historical macroeconomic data: futurework.org.au/abandoning_sup…. We said both wages & SG are determined by institutions, norms, & power. Whether they move together or apart depends on the balance of forces...4