[Thread] 1. How much more likely is an unvaccinated person to get infected with the #DeltaVariant vs a fully vaccinated person?

A new CDC report with US data found an unvaccinated person = 5x more likely to get infected than a fully vaccinated person.

bit.ly/3k3Q3le
2. Where does the CDC's data come from?

* It's real life data from between
- April 4 and June 19
- June 20 - July 17
* They looked at data from 13 US states
* Jabs that fully vaccinated people received = Pfizer/Moderna (92%), JnJ (8%)
3. What did the #DeltaVariant do to the protection #COVID vaccines offer @ infection?
It reduced vaccines' protection @ infection from 91% to 78%.
4. How do scientists know by how much the #DeltaVariant reduced the protection vaccines offered against infection?

They compared the risk of infection of 2 time periods:
April 4–June 19 (Delta = lower prevalence) and June 20–July 17 (Delta = higher prevalence)
5. How was the protection that full vaccination offers @ hospitalisation and death affected by the #DeltaVariant?

In short, not by much.

Hospitalisation: 94% to 91%
Death: 92% to 90%
6. How much more likely are people not vaccinated @ #COVID19 to end up in hospital or die of #COVID than fully vaccinated people if they're infected with the #DeltaVariant?
* End up in hospital: 10 times more likely
* Die: 10-11 times more likely
bit.ly/3k3Q3le
7. Conclusion: #SARSCoV2 infection, and hospitalisation and death as a result of it, is far more common among unvaccinated than vaccinated people. The reason? The effectiveness of vaccines.
8. Where was the CDC's data published? Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
When? 10 September
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

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More from @miamalan

15 Sep
[Thread] 1. How are we doing with #JnJ supply?

Here's what @HealthZA says we've received so far:

4 June – 300,000 (short expiry)
21 June – 1,253,600 (short expiry)
26 July – 1,454,400
9 August – 619,200
6 September – 1,413,600
13 September – 1,360,800
TOTAL – 6,401,600
2. How many doses does #JnJ still owe us?
We procured 31.2 million doses, so:
31,200,000 - 6,401,600 = 24,798,400
3. When will the rest of our #JnJ stock arrive?

Janssen/#JnJ = given @HealthZA tentative delivery dates for Sep + Oct, but the dates = not public.

But the quarterly delivery schedule is public:
Q3 (July - Sep): 9,100,000 doses
Read 12 tweets
10 Sep
[Thread].1. How is Northwest province doing with #VaccineRollOutSA?
* To reach 70% of adults by Dec, NW needs to do 20 000 jabs six days/week
* Where are they now? NW is doing 13 000 jabs/week
* Biggest challenge = vaccine hesitancy
2. How many #VaccineRollOutSA sites does NW have?
* 55 fixes sites (42 public, 13 private)
* 200 outreach sites
* NW has all the required equipment and also enough staff and funds to vaccinate all adults who needs a vaccine
3. Vaccine hesitancy in NW province = biggest problem. NW hlth dpt says the graph below shows that it's particularly difficult to get people to visit sites that are open over weekends, so there are huge dips in weekend vaccination numbers.
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
#Phaahla: [Thread] 1. BREAKING
1. In about 1 week, vaccinated SAs are likely to be issued with digital vaccination certificates
2. The certificates can be uploaded onto smart phones + will be printable
3. You can only get a certificate if your vax details = recorded on the #EVDS
2. #Phaahla: SA doesn't currently require vaccine passports for travelers coming into the country. We only require #COVID (PCR) test results not older than 72 hours.
3. #Phaahla: Digital vaccination certificates for vaccinated people in SA will:
* Protected from fraud, as far as possible
* Be in line with WHO requirements (WHO is standardising vaccine certificates for all countries to decrease the possibility of fraud)
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
[Thread] 1. #Phaahla: There has been a 24% drop in new #COVID19 cases, compared to the previous 7 days. But the WC (23.6% of new cases), NC, FS, KZN still have relatively proportions of new cases.
2.#Phaahla: Hospitalisations = decreased by 10% vs. the previous 7 days. WC has the highest #COVID hospitalisation rate. The WC is followed by FS and GP. Cases in GP = drastically dropped, but because people take time to fall ill, hospitalisations = still high in the province.
3. Positivity rates (the % of tests coming out +) have decreased from 30% on mid-July to 12% on Thu. Gauteng has the lowest + rate = 4.4%. GP = the only province with a + rate below the WHO's recommended rate of 5%.
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
[Thread] 1. Are fewer vaccinated than unvaccinated people of 60+ in WC being hospitalised for #COVID19 + dying of it?

YES, FAR FEWER.

1. Hospitalisations: Out of 729 admissions, 699 (96%) = unvaccinated
2. Deaths: Out of 292 deaths, 287 (98.3%) = unvaccinated.

Data: 14-20 Aug
2. Look @ the note @ the bottom of this @WestCapeHealth slide: "With thanks to Sanford Health Hospitals for concept". This is in reference to a slide with a similar template which Sanford Hospitals use for their data, which was also used to release Groote Schuur data this week.
3. #Antivaxxers falsely argued Groote Schuur Hospital data released on this template = untrue because it used a graphic that looked like Sanford Health Hospitals'. But @westerncapehealth confirmed the data as accurate + 2day released more data using a similar template.
Read 7 tweets
30 Aug
[Thread] 1. @nicd update on the new #COVID variant detected in SA.

What's the variant's name? C.1.2
When was it detected? May 2021

How do scientists detect variants? They unravel the genetic code of viruses. It's called genomic surveillance. SA has unravelled 16 000 genomes.
2. How common is C.1.2 in SA?

2.5% of the genomes that scientists sequence = currently C.1.2. Compare this to #Delta = 90%+.

The graph shows how the dominance of variants have changed over time.
Blue: Beta = 2nd wave
Green: Delta = 3rd wave
Purple: C.1.2 = emerged, 3rd wave
3. Where has C.1.2 popped up?
1. SA = Gauteng, KZN, WC, NC, LP, MP, EC
2. Africa = Botswana, DRC, Mauritius
3. Europe = Switzerland, Portugal
4. Asia = China

Diffs between SA and the other countries? C.1.2 is currently far more common in SA (but still only 2.5% of genomes).
Read 13 tweets

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