Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] 1. @nicd update on the new #COVID variant detected in SA.

What's the variant's name? C.1.2
When was it detected? May 2021

How do scientists detect variants? They unravel the genetic code of viruses. It's called genomic surveillance. SA has unravelled 16 000 genomes.

2. How common is C.1.2 in SA?

2.5% of the genomes that scientists sequence = currently C.1.2. Compare this to #Delta = 90%+.

The graph shows how the dominance of variants have changed over time.
Blue: Beta = 2nd wave
Green: Delta = 3rd wave
Purple: C.1.2 = emerged, 3rd wave

3. Where has C.1.2 popped up?
1. SA = Gauteng, KZN, WC, NC, LP, MP, EC
2. Africa = Botswana, DRC, Mauritius
3. Europe = Switzerland, Portugal
4. Asia = China

Diffs between SA and the other countries? C.1.2 is currently far more common in SA (but still only 2.5% of genomes).

4. Where did C.1.2 come from?

Scientists think its "parent" is C.1, one of the lineages that dominated the 1st wave of #SARSCoV2 infections in SA. It was last detected in Jan 2021.

But C.1.2 doesn't look exactly like its "parent", C.1 - it has several different mutations.

5. Why did scientists take note of C.1.2?

1. It has shared mutations with variants of concern such as #Beta and #Delta4.
2. It has several new mutations and mutates as a rate similar to variants of concern (= fast).

C.1.2 is NOT a variant of interest or concern.

6. Do we know if C.1.2 makes vaccines less effective?

No.

Why not? Because scientists are still conducting lab tests (they take blood from vaccinated people + people with natural immunity + see how their antibodies respond to C.1.2). Results out = next couple of weeks.

7. Can scientists predict the effect of C.1.2 on jabs?
Sort of. C.1.2 shares some mutations with variants of concern (VOC), so it's possible that those mutations will make C.1.2 behave in the same way. Good news: no VOC = strong enough to reduce efficacy @ severe #COVID by much.

8. It's not only antibodies that protect us @ severe #COVID. T-cells (also part of our immune response) play an even bigger role. And no variant has figured out how to make T-cells less effective.

9. What can variants of concern do?
1. Cause more severe disease
2. Make jabs work less well (variants with certain mutations can make jabs less effective @ mild/moderate forms of #COVID, but rarely @ severe #COVID) (#Beta)
3. Increase transmissibility (#Delta)

10. Will C.1.2 become a variant of interest or concern?

We don't know.

To be one a virus needs to:
1. Have spread significantly in a region/globally (the variant must be 20% of genomes sequenced)
2. Show it's more transmissible/escapes immunity/makes people sicker.

11. Do we need to increase our #lockdown level to keep C.1.2 under control? No. We need to:
1. Vaccinate as fast as we can
2. Adhere to mask wearing, social distancing, hand washing, ventilated rooms

11. Why does C.1.2 not have a Greek name? Only variants of interest and concern have Greek names (the WHO classifies them).

12. Has a research paper been published on C.1.2. Yes, a preprint has been published (preprint = not yet peer reviewed). You can read it here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…