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11 Sep, 4 tweets, 3 min read
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Sep. 11, 2021

487 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $45,596

1/ It has been 151 days since BTC hit its all-time high... ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/ We are 50 days away from this correction being the longest drawdown #Bitcoin experienced in a post-halving bull market... ๐Ÿ‘‡
3/ But the recovery is well underway. If we get some catalyst for FOMO to kick in, who knows, #Bitcoin could even do a repeat of 2013. ๐Ÿš€

One can hope๐Ÿคž...
4/ Regardless, #Bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet if you are playing the long game... ๐Ÿง

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics Profile picture
28 Aug
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Aug. 28, 2021

473 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $48,583

1/ Some resistance at $50k. This is not totally unexpected but still...
2/ ... the recovery from the bottom of this correction is well underway.

We can hope that there will be some repeat of 2013 when #BTC came out strong from a -60% drawdown in the middle of the post-halving bull market.
3/ If that's the case, this drawdown will probably be the second longest one that #Bitcoin ever experienced outside of a multi-year bear market.
Read 5 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
26 Aug
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Aug. 26, 2021

471 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $46,995

1/ Some difficulties to push past $50k. Not entirely surprising when we look at some on-chain data... Image
2/ The addresses controlling 10 to 10k #BTC have been accumulating more slowly. In particular the whales have turned neutral on a 30 days basis. Image
3/ Again, the question is to know if this is temporary or if we'll get a bigger divergence between whales and small fish.

Obviously if everyone was pulling in the same direction this would be better for #Bitcoin's price action. ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ Image
Read 4 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
23 Aug
1/ Good news. Compared to February, when #Bitcoin crossed $50k for the first time, the on-chain dynamic has changed:
๐Ÿ”ตFebruary, less and less people were accumulating.
๐ŸŸ Now, more and more people are accumulating.
2/ If we go past the smooth picture given by the participation score and look at the raw data we see that:
๐ŸŸ Smaller addresses are stacking sats at a constant pace.
๐ŸŸขThe 10 to 1k #BTC bucket has turned neutral.
๐ŸŸกWhales are still up on a 30 days basis.
3/ So far this is different from February when the move above $50k was mostly carried by the small fish.

But to build a sustainable trend that would push #Bitcoin into the 6 figures territory it would be great to avoid any divergence between small fish and whales.
Read 4 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
26 Jul
Inflation is running hot. Even the Fed cannot deny that.

Now the big debate seems to be whether or not inflation is going to be transitory.

But the real question is: if prices never go down, does it really matter?

Big ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡ [1/22]
The Fed is aiming for a 2% average inflation rate. But the latest June numbers are:

๐ŸŸฅ Core inflation +4.5%
๐ŸŸฅ Headline inflation +5.4%

Last time those two were so high together was 30 years agoโ€ฆ [2/22]
As a reminder, core inflation is calculated by removing some of the most volatile components of the CPI.

So when both core inflation and headline inflation are going parabolic together, you know there is an issue... [3/22]
Read 22 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
25 Jul
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 25, 2021

439 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $34,043

We are finishing this week with:
๐ŸŸง BTC bouncing back on the $30,000 level.
๐ŸŸง But still stuck in the 2nd longest drawdown in a post-halving market.

... (1/5)
Indeed this #Bitcoin drawdown:
๐ŸŸง Now lasted 103 days.
๐ŸŸง Bottomed at -55% from the ATH.
๐ŸŸง Has been caught in a relatively low volatility environment since then.

... (2/5)
So while it is nice to see #BTC on the uptrend for the last few days it could still take a while for a new parabolic move to develop.

Remember than the massive drawdown of 2013 lasted 200 days... (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
17 Jul
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 17, 2021

431 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $31,678

One more week stuck in this drawdown:
๐ŸŸง 95 days since the last ATH.
๐ŸŸง Bottom -55% below the ATH.
๐ŸŸง Volatility continues to decline.

... (1/5) ๐Ÿ‘‡
This is one of the longest drawdown #Bitcoin has had to deal with during a post-halving bull market.

But 95 days is still only half the duration of the big drawdown of 2013... (2/5)
In terms of price trajectory this correction also looks very similar to 2013. If we continue like that, #BTC will remain stuck around $30k for a while... (3/5)
Read 5 tweets

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