#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 25, 2021

439 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $34,043

We are finishing this week with:
🟧 BTC bouncing back on the $30,000 level.
🟧 But still stuck in the 2nd longest drawdown in a post-halving market.

... (1/5)
Indeed this #Bitcoin drawdown:
🟧 Now lasted 103 days.
🟧 Bottomed at -55% from the ATH.
🟧 Has been caught in a relatively low volatility environment since then.

... (2/5)
So while it is nice to see #BTC on the uptrend for the last few days it could still take a while for a new parabolic move to develop.

Remember than the massive drawdown of 2013 lasted 200 days... (3/5)
... and with volatility still on the downtrend it is less likely (although not impossible) for the price to jump suddenly... (4/5)
So probably the best thing to do now is do like everyone else: stack sats.

Play the long game and accumulate slowly but surely.

This is what most of people are doing these days according to #Bitcoin on-chain data. (5/5)

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More from @ecoinometrics

26 Jul
Inflation is running hot. Even the Fed cannot deny that.

Now the big debate seems to be whether or not inflation is going to be transitory.

But the real question is: if prices never go down, does it really matter?

Big 🧵👇 [1/22]
The Fed is aiming for a 2% average inflation rate. But the latest June numbers are:

🟥 Core inflation +4.5%
🟥 Headline inflation +5.4%

Last time those two were so high together was 30 years ago… [2/22]
As a reminder, core inflation is calculated by removing some of the most volatile components of the CPI.

So when both core inflation and headline inflation are going parabolic together, you know there is an issue... [3/22]
Read 22 tweets
17 Jul
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 17, 2021

431 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $31,678

One more week stuck in this drawdown:
🟧 95 days since the last ATH.
🟧 Bottom -55% below the ATH.
🟧 Volatility continues to decline.

... (1/5) 👇
This is one of the longest drawdown #Bitcoin has had to deal with during a post-halving bull market.

But 95 days is still only half the duration of the big drawdown of 2013... (2/5)
In terms of price trajectory this correction also looks very similar to 2013. If we continue like that, #BTC will remain stuck around $30k for a while... (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 13, 2021

427 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $32,569

There is some intriguing on-chain data that suggests Bitcoin is resetting after the big correction that took us from $64k all the way down to $30k.

So let's have a look. 🧵👇 (1/13)
Take addresses and put them in buckets depending on how much #BTC they control:

🟧 Less than 1 BTC (small fish)
🟧 1 to 10 BTC
🟧 …
🟧 1k to 10k BTC (whales)

Now what’s the idea? (2/13)
The closer you are to a small fish:

⬜️ The less firepower you have as an individual address.
⬜️ The less sophisticated about the market you are. Small fish are not in the know.

Individually small fish don’t have much power over the market. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
6 Jul
1/ As Warren Buffet would say, for #Bitcoin our favourite holding period is forever.

But that doesn’t mean you have to wait an eternity to see gains.

So what should be your investment horizon?

Here is the breakdown 🧵
2/ Over short time frames anything can happen:

🟧@elonmusk can tweet.
🟧 FUD can grip the market.
🟧 You can get a good FOMO pump.

Really, anything goes… 📉📈🤷‍♂️
3/ If you hold Bitcoin for one week, there is nothing you can expect but randomness.❌
Read 15 tweets
5 Jun
For now #Bitcoin remains stuck in a drawdown that has lasted 53 days and bottomed -53% below the latest ATH.

That’s a big one if you compare it to BTC history.

But all assets have to deal with that. So let's put those Bitcoin corrections in context.

Time for a 🧵
1/ Spoiler alert, all assets have to deal with periods of drawdowns.

So if we take say gold and some of the largest stocks by market cap the only question is: does Bitcoin stand out?

Let’s take a look. 👇
2/ #Bitcoin, Apple, Amazon, JPMorgan... everyone has had large drawdowns.

Take Apple. It is now the largest stock by market cap but that wasn’t a smooth ride.

Over its long history, the stock had to endure several corrections of more than 75%...

Check it out 👇
Read 8 tweets
27 Apr
Last week #Bitcoin had five red candles in a row...

In those times you can choose to do one of two things:

Panic sell as if you were equipped with paper hands.

OR

Think rationally about what’s behind the price drop and act accordingly.

Time for a thread 🧵
1/ In a downturn, only two questions matter:

i. Is this correction the result of some event that is invalidating your investment thesis?

ii. Is this correction different than anything else we’ve seen in the past?

Indeed...
2/ If your investment thesis is wrong, then there is no point staying in your position. Sell and move on.

If the correction is completely unheard of, then you need to dig deeper on the first question to see if you haven’t missed anything.

But...
Read 9 tweets

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