#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 17, 2021

431 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $31,678

One more week stuck in this drawdown:
🟧 95 days since the last ATH.
🟧 Bottom -55% below the ATH.
🟧 Volatility continues to decline.

... (1/5) 👇
This is one of the longest drawdown #Bitcoin has had to deal with during a post-halving bull market.

But 95 days is still only half the duration of the big drawdown of 2013... (2/5)
In terms of price trajectory this correction also looks very similar to 2013. If we continue like that, #BTC will remain stuck around $30k for a while... (3/5)
The one-month volatility of #Bitcoin is on a downtrend, but historically speaking it isn't particularly low.

So from that perspective it is possible for the trading range to stay pretty tight for longer... (4/5)
(5/5) If you want a deeper dive into this short term #Bitcoin volatility squeeze, go checkout the latest issue of the Ecoinometrics newsletter. 👇
ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometric…

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More from @ecoinometrics

13 Jul
#Bitcoin after the Halving
Jul. 13, 2021

427 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $32,569

There is some intriguing on-chain data that suggests Bitcoin is resetting after the big correction that took us from $64k all the way down to $30k.

So let's have a look. 🧵👇 (1/13)
Take addresses and put them in buckets depending on how much #BTC they control:

🟧 Less than 1 BTC (small fish)
🟧 1 to 10 BTC
🟧 …
🟧 1k to 10k BTC (whales)

Now what’s the idea? (2/13)
The closer you are to a small fish:

⬜️ The less firepower you have as an individual address.
⬜️ The less sophisticated about the market you are. Small fish are not in the know.

Individually small fish don’t have much power over the market. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
6 Jul
1/ As Warren Buffet would say, for #Bitcoin our favourite holding period is forever.

But that doesn’t mean you have to wait an eternity to see gains.

So what should be your investment horizon?

Here is the breakdown 🧵
2/ Over short time frames anything can happen:

🟧@elonmusk can tweet.
🟧 FUD can grip the market.
🟧 You can get a good FOMO pump.

Really, anything goes… 📉📈🤷‍♂️
3/ If you hold Bitcoin for one week, there is nothing you can expect but randomness.❌
Read 15 tweets
5 Jun
For now #Bitcoin remains stuck in a drawdown that has lasted 53 days and bottomed -53% below the latest ATH.

That’s a big one if you compare it to BTC history.

But all assets have to deal with that. So let's put those Bitcoin corrections in context.

Time for a 🧵
1/ Spoiler alert, all assets have to deal with periods of drawdowns.

So if we take say gold and some of the largest stocks by market cap the only question is: does Bitcoin stand out?

Let’s take a look. 👇
2/ #Bitcoin, Apple, Amazon, JPMorgan... everyone has had large drawdowns.

Take Apple. It is now the largest stock by market cap but that wasn’t a smooth ride.

Over its long history, the stock had to endure several corrections of more than 75%...

Check it out 👇
Read 8 tweets
27 Apr
Last week #Bitcoin had five red candles in a row...

In those times you can choose to do one of two things:

Panic sell as if you were equipped with paper hands.

OR

Think rationally about what’s behind the price drop and act accordingly.

Time for a thread 🧵
1/ In a downturn, only two questions matter:

i. Is this correction the result of some event that is invalidating your investment thesis?

ii. Is this correction different than anything else we’ve seen in the past?

Indeed...
2/ If your investment thesis is wrong, then there is no point staying in your position. Sell and move on.

If the correction is completely unheard of, then you need to dig deeper on the first question to see if you haven’t missed anything.

But...
Read 9 tweets
4 Apr
When #Bitcoin hits $110k, its market cap will be larger than Apple. That’s about 2x from the current price.

So how long could it take for #BTC to get there?

Maybe faster than you’d expect...

Time for a thread 🧵👇
1/ Starting at the time of the halving, how long does it take for #Bitcoin's value to double? Then double again? And again?

The answer is anywhere between 12 days and 300 days each time.

Check it out 👇
2/ So far in this cycle the 1st doubling took 190 days and the 2nd took 50 days.

The next doubling will happen at $74k. We have been waiting for it for 3 months.
Read 8 tweets
30 Jan
Remember when Citigroup downgraded MicroStrategy to a “sell” rating? That was at the beginning of December.

Back then MSTR was up 150% since their first #Bitcoin purchase.

At the close on Friday $MSTR was up 350% since their first #BTC purchase...

Time for an update 👇👇👇
1/ So far MicroStrategy bought #Bitcoin five times for a total of 70,784 #BTC. At the close on Friday their return on treasury hodlings over 100%. 👇👇👇
2/ When you consider that the value of MicroStrategy’s #Bitcoin treasury is equivalent to more than 40% of their market cap it is easy to imagine that the value of $MSTR is heavily driven by that of #BTC. 👇👇👇
Read 5 tweets

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