This thread caused quite a stir. Though I can't confirm these numbers (the US doesn't have accessible national data), it's an important idea. If we are indeed all supposed to "get" infected by #SARS2 sooner or later, it would be very useful to know what outcomes we are facing.
1/
Once again, I turn to the country that had multiple significant outbreaks, since the beginning collects & now releases in real-time raw data separated by the vaccination status: #Israel.
So, let's compare case fatality rates & case severe hospitalization rates.
2/
These are #Israel's totals of cases, new severe patients & deaths. I have to stress that Israel tests a lot & includes antigen tests. Their level of healthcare is among the best in the world. And importantly, they reacted swiftly & blunted the impact of both #Alpha & #Delta.
3/ Image
That's why their all-time CFR is so low at 0,64%, or x3 below the world average. Most other countries can only dream of repeating their results.
Next, I divided the numbers before the start of the vaccination campaign & after (data available from Jan 20, 2021).
4/ Image
We can see here vaccination campaigns (both original & booster) additionally helped CFR decrease 0,73% -> 0,55%. Nevertheless, about 28% of severe cases still die.
Subdividing the two main time-frames into shorter intervals is too brief & unfinished for meaningful conclusions.
5/ Image
I want to point out Israel enacted a booster campaign while there were 402 new severe cases & only 48 deaths from June 15 to July 29. This remarkable decisiveness is unparalleled in the Western world. Our politicians react only when hospitals & morgues are already overfull.
6/
Now I add age subgroups, but I combined vaccinated with or without boosters, while partially vaccinated are not available.
From January 20 until September 7, vaccinated Over-60s have a CFR of 3% vs. 10,7% for the unvaccinated over the same period.
7/ Image
For the Under-60s, in the same period, CFR is incredibly low 0,02% among vaccinated, but 0,07% in unvaccinated.
So, in both the Over-60 & Under-60 subgroups, Israel data shows that the risk of dying after the #SARS2 infection is x3,5 higher for unvaccinated!
8/ Image
Vaccination also further amplified #SARS2 notorious disproportionality of outcomes. The difference in risk of the fatal outcome between old & young has risen from x150 to x500 when comparing vaccinated Under-60 person to an unvaccinated Over-60.
9/ ImageImage
Case severe hospitalization risk reduction after vaccination is also significant, almost x3 in both age groups. But, if people get into a severe condition, the benefits of vaccines diminish (34% vacc. vs. 40% unvacc.) & age matters much more again (6,7% vacc. & 8,6% unvacc.).
10/ ImageImage
Finally, due to extreme disproportionality of outcomes & vaccination levels, it can be misleading to look at the whole population. Taken all groups together, the general population shows no benefit in CFR. But, as I explained multiple times, it's just a mathematical quirk.
11/11 ImageImageImageImage

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More from @x2IndSpeculator

14 Sep
A continuation of NIH studies on macaques; this one trying to solve a riddle of differences in #COVID severity & immune response between the young & the old.
@fitterhappierAJ
"Aging results in numerous changes to cells & mediators of the immune system... biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
which alter susceptibility to infection, disease progression & clinical outcomes...
immunosenescence include cytokine dysregulation, an accumulation of senescent cells leading to chronic inflammation, a loss of naïve T- & B-cells & defective responses by innate immune subsets."
"Declining adaptive immunity is another hallmark of immunosenescence. A reduction in thymic & bone marrow function contributes to a loss of naïve T- and B-cells & the accumulation of terminally differentiated effector cells...
older rhesus macaques exhibited lower frequencies...
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
A change in definitions of vaccinated status & new raw data from @IsraelMOH demanded a refreshed approach to my #Israel's #SARS2 charts. I start with general population totals of the four available daily datasets: NEW cases, severely ill & deaths, and ACTIVE severely ill.
1/
Due to the different sizes of these categories, I had to use log charts. Daily NEW cases, severe & deaths jump around wildly depending on the day of the week, so I'll (mostly) use the standard 7-day rolling averages of both the absolute numbers & the incidence rates.
2/
It's fascinating to see how much the beginnings of this & last year's waves resemble each other. After a prolonged period of new cases below active severely ill, a sudden outbreak above that range signals the start of a huge new wave. A policy reaction is a must at THAT point.
3/
Read 11 tweets
9 Sep
I have to again remind people to read the Galveston study of the P681R mutation. #Delta is NOT the fittest variant possible. In fact, they found out that Delta has A LOT of space for improvement. Mutations outside of Spike actually decreased Delta's fitness for viral replication.
Updated version is out.
"P681R substitution clearly augments spike processing & is likely the main driver of the fitness advantage observed in #Delta variant...
Recent study showed that mutation P681H alone did not enhance viral fitness or transmission."
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
"...breakthrough infections by the #DeltaVariant in vaccinated individuals DO NOT REFLECT IMMUNE ESCAPE. Instead, the increased breakthrough infection is likely due to enhanced viral replication fitness of the #Delta variant through augmented spike processing."
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
Well, surprise, surprise. It seems Israelis do know math & there is nothing exceptional about Israel or the UK, just a delay due to timing. A familiar phenomenon is appearing now in the UK data: compare rates per 100k between vaccinated & unvaccinated.
These UK numbers cover previous four weeks: from August 9th to September 5th, so finally some fresh UK data divided by vaccination status and with calculated incidence rates per 100k.
Infections now suddenly evenly spread.
Also as expected, vaccine effectiveness vs. hospitalization & death still remains significant.
But, the waning of Abs is now slowly biting off the protection here too, especially in older age groups.
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
IMPORTANT!
My analysis of the #Israel data is now just a part of history.
@IsraelMOH changed the way it counts vaccinated people, updated population numbers with new projections, changed raw data, stopped calculating incidence for the whole population, etc.
Translated by Google:
"Immunized with an impulse (booster) dose - those who received 3 vaccine doses & 7 days have passed since receiving the 3rd dose.
Immunized without booster dose - those who received 3 doses of vaccine & have not yet passed 7 days since receiving the 3rd dose or those who...
received 2 doses of vaccine & passed 7 days since receiving the second dose or recovering who were vaccinated with one dose & 7 days have passed since receiving the dose.
Unvaccinated - those who did not receive a 1st dose of vaccine."
It's officially a three doses vaccine now.
Read 12 tweets
6 Sep
The cleverest among #SARS2 minimizers have used the confusion to masterfully hijack several words, terms & phrases in this pandemic. They then twisted their meaning, politicized them & sold them back to the public as the supposed Truths.
One of those is Living with #COVID.
1/
Misleadingly devoid, on purpose stripped of details, Living with #COVID for #SARS2 downplayers means a return to life as before by DOING NOTHING, ignoring #SARS2 like it doesn't exist, hoping for the best.
If they were honest, their motto would be Living by Ignoring #COVID.
2/
We've seen many times before that #SARS2 can't be controlled by ignoring; it always strikes back.
Learning to live with something means confronting a unique challenge, accepting a novel situation & navigating through it the best as one can.
That demands ACTION, NOT INACTION.
3/
Read 6 tweets

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