A change in definitions of vaccinated status & new raw data from @IsraelMOH demanded a refreshed approach to my #Israel's #SARS2 charts. I start with general population totals of the four available daily datasets: NEW cases, severely ill & deaths, and ACTIVE severely ill.
Due to the different sizes of these categories, I had to use log charts. Daily NEW cases, severe & deaths jump around wildly depending on the day of the week, so I'll (mostly) use the standard 7-day rolling averages of both the absolute numbers & the incidence rates.
It's fascinating to see how much the beginnings of this & last year's waves resemble each other. After a prolonged period of new cases below active severely ill, a sudden outbreak above that range signals the start of a huge new wave. A policy reaction is a must at THAT point.
Infections lead with significant time lags on the way up, in logical order. Less so on the way down! If a wave is truly subsiding (not just some testing quirk), EVERY measure should start falling soon, though cases much more pronounced than severe hospitalizations & deaths.
Looking at incidence, Israel topped out again at 100 per 100k. Confirmed infections depend on testing (which Israel does a lot), but, curiously, this level of daily cases of 1‰ (one permille, 1/1000, or 0.1%) of the total population often acts as a ceiling in this pandemic.
In the worst managed outbreaks, daily cases breach this 1‰ of the population ceiling, but the wave has a hard time staying above it before exhausting itself.
Also, 1 per 100k incidence for severe & deaths often delineates how is a country handling its current #SARSCoV2 wave.
If I use 7-day averages for new cases, severe & deaths, the dynamics of this pandemic are more clearly visible. It also shows how #SARS2 manages to fool everyone by falling so low to appear beaten and then exponentially exploding x1000 higher in incidence in just two months.
Sometimes I'll use rolling weekly totals for new severe & deaths because daily zeros mess up calculations & plots. It this chart, it's even better visible how low the numbers fell, just as the current outbreak was, in fact, beginning.
#SARSCoV2 is playing mind games with us!
Also, look at how weekly totals of new severe mirror active severe when a wave is rising. But, the moment the trend breaks, NEW severe cases separate downward & start decreasing first. That is happening now in Israel. With boosters, they managed to speed up this downtrend.
Finally, thanks to the first-class data & the use of logic, #Israel spotted the problem quickly, and without much waiting, implemented a booster campaign while deaths were STILL VERY LOW, at only around 10 per week. If they reacted slower, the consequences would be harsher.
These are the links to my previous threads about #Israel's raw data, containing the history, sources & my methodology for calculating & plotting all these charts.


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More from @x2IndSpeculator

15 Sep
I'm sorry but I can't stand anymore these simplified charts with selected time frames & selected subgroups & equalized y-axis for cases, severe & deaths to minimize damage from #SARS2 & wrong assertion naturally infected are only among unvaccinated... like just published in FT.
My philosophy is:
Find .csv or .xls data from an official trusted source.
Plot a chart from DAY 1 of the provided dataset.
Show ALL available subgroups; comparison is vital, especially if using incidences.
If combining deaths & cases use LOG charts because linear diminish deaths!
After I import & consolidate data, creating a new chart is a truly exciting exploration moment for me. I go where it leads me.
The mainstream media's half-charts are not exploratory. They serve to confirm predestined presumptions of its authors/editors & justify someone's policy.
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
A continuation of NIH studies on macaques; this one trying to solve a riddle of differences in #COVID severity & immune response between the young & the old.
"Aging results in numerous changes to cells & mediators of the immune system... biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
which alter susceptibility to infection, disease progression & clinical outcomes...
immunosenescence include cytokine dysregulation, an accumulation of senescent cells leading to chronic inflammation, a loss of naïve T- & B-cells & defective responses by innate immune subsets."
"Declining adaptive immunity is another hallmark of immunosenescence. A reduction in thymic & bone marrow function contributes to a loss of naïve T- and B-cells & the accumulation of terminally differentiated effector cells...
older rhesus macaques exhibited lower frequencies...
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
This thread caused quite a stir. Though I can't confirm these numbers (the US doesn't have accessible national data), it's an important idea. If we are indeed all supposed to "get" infected by #SARS2 sooner or later, it would be very useful to know what outcomes we are facing.
Once again, I turn to the country that had multiple significant outbreaks, since the beginning collects & now releases in real-time raw data separated by the vaccination status: #Israel.
So, let's compare case fatality rates & case severe hospitalization rates.
These are #Israel's totals of cases, new severe patients & deaths. I have to stress that Israel tests a lot & includes antigen tests. Their level of healthcare is among the best in the world. And importantly, they reacted swiftly & blunted the impact of both #Alpha & #Delta.
3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
9 Sep
I have to again remind people to read the Galveston study of the P681R mutation. #Delta is NOT the fittest variant possible. In fact, they found out that Delta has A LOT of space for improvement. Mutations outside of Spike actually decreased Delta's fitness for viral replication.
Updated version is out.
"P681R substitution clearly augments spike processing & is likely the main driver of the fitness advantage observed in #Delta variant...
Recent study showed that mutation P681H alone did not enhance viral fitness or transmission."
"...breakthrough infections by the #DeltaVariant in vaccinated individuals DO NOT REFLECT IMMUNE ESCAPE. Instead, the increased breakthrough infection is likely due to enhanced viral replication fitness of the #Delta variant through augmented spike processing."
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
Well, surprise, surprise. It seems Israelis do know math & there is nothing exceptional about Israel or the UK, just a delay due to timing. A familiar phenomenon is appearing now in the UK data: compare rates per 100k between vaccinated & unvaccinated.
These UK numbers cover previous four weeks: from August 9th to September 5th, so finally some fresh UK data divided by vaccination status and with calculated incidence rates per 100k.
Infections now suddenly evenly spread.
Also as expected, vaccine effectiveness vs. hospitalization & death still remains significant.
But, the waning of Abs is now slowly biting off the protection here too, especially in older age groups.
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
My analysis of the #Israel data is now just a part of history.
@IsraelMOH changed the way it counts vaccinated people, updated population numbers with new projections, changed raw data, stopped calculating incidence for the whole population, etc.
Translated by Google:
"Immunized with an impulse (booster) dose - those who received 3 vaccine doses & 7 days have passed since receiving the 3rd dose.
Immunized without booster dose - those who received 3 doses of vaccine & have not yet passed 7 days since receiving the 3rd dose or those who...
received 2 doses of vaccine & passed 7 days since receiving the second dose or recovering who were vaccinated with one dose & 7 days have passed since receiving the dose.
Unvaccinated - those who did not receive a 1st dose of vaccine."
It's officially a three doses vaccine now.
Read 12 tweets

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