1. It seems we have forgotten about the Lily Pad problem in #Alberta.
The lily pad grows in a pond and doubles in size every day. On day 30 it is full. The math quiz question is: on what day was the pond half full?
The lily pad grows in a pond and doubles in size every day. On day 30 it is full. The math quiz question is: on what day was the pond half full?
2. The answer is on day 29. But even more scary is what happens on day 31…
3. We can try to make the pond bigger (by stopping normal hospital activities to accommodate more lilies) and if we can do enough perhaps make it through day 31. But then comes day 32 (4x full capacity).
4. On day 32 despite all efforts there will be no way to accommodate more lilies but we will have 2x as many as the day before. They will not survive.
5. This is simple gr9 math. Alberta hospitals are in day 31 from #COVID19 point of view.
Hospitals do not start empty and there is a significant cost to attempts at emptying them.
Hospitals do not start empty and there is a significant cost to attempts at emptying them.
6. Hospitals can only be expanded to a degree. Specialized staff can only be redeployed to a degree and existing staff pushed to a limit. Some specialized drug treatments have already been exhausted.
7. Patients can be transferred to other institutions as is occurring across the province but on day 32 this won’t be possible either.
8. Remaining options will be out of province transfers, and triage / rationing of care.
9. Then comes day 33 (8x full capacity).
And that is the problem with inaction from day 1 to 29. When it becomes obvious that the system is full, it is much too late to act.
And that is the problem with inaction from day 1 to 29. When it becomes obvious that the system is full, it is much too late to act.
10. Modest targeted measures would have helped then, as suggested by countless experts. Now only drastic action will fix this, unfortunately at much greater social and economic costs.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
