Share this page!

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
Twitter logo
15 Sep, 4 tweets, 4 min read
The two congressional maps unveiled by New York's bipartisan commission are now up & analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight's redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The "letters" plan would take the state's reapportioned-away congressional district out of the GOP column. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight While the "names" plan would shave off 2 Democratic seats and add a Republican #NY10 in NYC. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight As @galendruke writes, however, neither plan is going to become law, since NY Democrats are going to want to use their biggest redistricting weapon to squeeze as many as 23 blue seats out of the Empire State. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Nathaniel Rakich

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
3 Sep
The two new proposed congressional maps for Oregon are now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The first map, Plan A, was proposed by Democrats, and you can see why. It would make a 5-1 map quite likely. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The second map, Plan B, was proposed by Republicans. It would keep the competitiveness of the current districts AND make the new #OR06 swingy as well. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
31 Aug
New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
24 Aug
Voters don't fit neatly into "lanes," part 356:

Eric Adams voters' 2nd choices in the #NYCmayor race:

No 2nd choice 21%
Maya Wiley 20%
Andrew Yang 15%
Kathryn Garcia 12%
Ray McGuire 9%
Scott Stringer 8%
Wiley voters' 2nd choices:

Garcia 30%
Dianne Morales 20%
Adams 13%
Stringer 11%
No 2nd choice 6%
Yang 5%

#NYCmayor
Garcia voters' 2nd choices:

Wiley 27%
Stringer 17%
Adams 15%
Yang 14%
Donovan 10%
No 2nd choice 5%

#NYCmayor
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
28 Jul
Based on precinct results from Tarrant & Ellis counties (generously shared with me by @cinyc9), I see no evidence that #TX06 Democrats voted for Ellzey in significant numbers. (1/5)
First, there was no relationship between how Democratic a precinct was in the May 1 jungle primary and how much it voted for Ellzey today. #TX06 (2/5)
Second, the biggest turnout dropoffs from the first round came in bluer precincts, suggesting that most Democrats simply sat today's election out. #TX06 (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
21 Jun
Want to understand the #NYCmayor election results like a local?

🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁

Introducing the FIVE POLITICAL BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY! fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
1. THE ELITE CIRCLES. This is the New York that gets depicted in the media. It's 56% white, 63% college-educated, and is the most progressive/lefty part of the city. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
2. THE TRUE-BLUE BRONX. By contrast, this borough votes loyally for establishment Democrats. It's 57% Hispanic and is centered heavily on the Bronx (duh). fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5…
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
14 May
WOW.
Background:
In justifying its decision, the Mississippi Supreme Court writes, "It is wholly within the realm of possibility that the drafters foresaw or even hoped for a drop in congressional representation that would render the ballot-initiative process unworkable." courts.ms.gov/Images/Opinion…
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @baseballot has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @baseballot!

Read all threads by @baseballot

:(