Thread by @MichaelSFuhrer

I'm trying very hard to understand the Burnet modeling for the VIC roadmap.

The projections seem almost absurdly pessimistic.

#CovidVictoria #CovidVic #roadmap

1/🧵
premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…

They project, if we follow the re-opening roadmap:
2202 deaths by January (says Dec in table, but clear in the plot it is end of Jan).

I integrated their daily infections, and calculate 330,000 infections from 21 Sept - 31 Jan.

2/🧵

Per capita, that is:

51,076 cases/million = 5.1%
341 deaths/million = 0.034%

An infection fatality ratio of 0.67% (underestimated, as deaths lag cases!)

Ridiculously high for a highly vaccinated population, and comparable to IFR for no vaccination.

3/🧵

For comparison, Denmark (pop. 5.8M) had their delta wave begin in June. Denmark was nearly open (schools, restaurants, museums, events open) and never imposed add'l restrictions for delta, and relaxed all restrictions on 10 September.

4/🧵

Since the delta wave began Denmark has had about 61,659 cases = 10,606/M = 1.06%, and 90 deaths = 15.48/M = 0.0015%, for 0.14% CFR.

5/🧵

To try to compare similar time periods (one month):

The Burnet roadmap predicts for January 2022 cases will be declining, but still there will be:
~75,000 cases = 11,700/M = 1.17%
~700 deaths = 108/M = 0.0108%

6/🧵

Last month in Denmark cases were declining, and there were:
20,494 cases = 3525/M = 0.35%
60 deaths = 10.32/M = 0.0010%
0.29% IFR

1/3 the cases and 1/10 the deaths as Burnet's projection.

And likely to be Denmark's worst month of delta (cases have come down threefold!)

7/🧵

Denmark is highly vaccinated. But VIC will be highly vaccinated in January 2022. In DK over the last month, vaccination proceeded from 67.7% -> 74.4% of total population. Equivalent of 79.6% -> 87.5% of 12+ population. Surely will be comparable in VIC.

8/🧵

Had Burnet modeled DK on 1 July, heading into delta wave with no lockdown, few restrictions, and 34% of population vaxxed, surely they would have predicted a far worse outcome than their VIC projection, yet so far DK has <1/10 deaths compared to Burnet, with waning cases.

9/🧵

I will be extremely surprised if VIC comes anywhere near Burnet's modeling numbers.

10/10🧵