Thread by @MichaelSFuhrer

Some more perspective on the mind-boggling modeling from @BurnetInstitute.

*No country* which has achieved 64% vax of total pop. (equivalent to 80% of 16+) has seen 110 deaths/million population in one month (predicted for VIC in January.

#COVID19Vic
premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
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https://twitter.com/MichaelSFuhrer/status/1439457817799249921

Many countries with high vax, low infection-acquired immunity, and nearly zero restrictions have death rates more than 10X lower (Finland, Norway, Denmark).

Hard to understand why VIC covid deaths should exceed those in other low-covid countries by >10X.

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Burnet Institute predicts VIC will see 11,600 cases/M and 110 deaths/M (deaths 0.93% of cases!) in Jan 2022.

Last month (19 Aug-18 Sep):

UK started at 65% total pop vaxxed, had 14,851 *reported* cases/M and 55.5 deaths/M (deadliest mo. of delta; deaths 0.37% of cases).

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Israel had 61.9% vax, 28,418 *reported* cases/M, 86 deaths/M (0.30%).

Reported cases underestimate actual cases, so the death/case ratio is *overestimated* for UK and Israel, but the modeled cases are presumed to be the total.

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It is beyond belief to expect covid to be 2.5-3X deadlier (or more - as actual cases outnumber reported!) in VIC in Jan 2022 compared to UK and Israel last month, with few restrictions and lower vax.

Model is simply not credible.

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