Got a few DMs I'd like to address as a thread here.
Recent ~30% selloff shaved the valuation base to an average of ~60$/lb. pricing for #uranium equities on average from the +65$/lb pricing. Same kind of shave from here would bring majority to value with the spot.
2/7
Now, it looks obvious that market is anticipating SPUT to buy lbs and thus put pressure on rising the spot. If it doesn't, like soon, the overvaluation on equities continue to level down. Euphoria needs to be fed.
3/7
SPUT is the flick of the switch here. Broad market direction either dampens or accelerates the following movement.
4/7
So basically two scenarios make the next short term scene for uranium sector.
Scenario 1: Sput continues to buy.
The lows are in for equities and recent highs are met swiftly. Equities move on valuing 65-70$/lb pricing.
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Scenario 2: Sput stays put or goes to discount
Today is just going to be a relief rally day in a correction, expected to be 40-50% from highs.
6/7
Uranium sector is turning into a hot one. Emotion driven decisions make movements more exaggerated. Certain market participants also come in play, providing liquidity, but also making certain events like breakouts or breakdowns more meaningful.
7/7
I'll probably be a buyer, either one of the scenarios happen, but for me, personally, I keep my lower bids on and see what happens.
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We just had extended highs as the SPUT caused the spot rise through the feedback loop. As the SPUT lost the premium, due whatever reason, the rally stalled and started losing steam causing a reverse in equities.
3/
After the highs, think who distributes and who accumulates, and on which side of the market, physical or equities?
Now there is almost no production which naturally affects how we should compare the market caps of different eras. The cash flow from #uranium mining itself is almost null. Also, many equities have retraced 20% or more from the peak market valuation already, which has brought...
...the market valuation closer to the realized spot price.
Market cap of the sector also reacts in a shape of an S-curve rather than linear line, as the economics of the projects get significantly better at a certain price range. The exponential part of the journey is still...
...ahead of us, which seems unbelievable at this point where we can see ten multiples of revaluation in some of the equities already. Which is exactly why #uranium is THE investment opportunity of a life time.
1. We have seen some massive moves in #uranium last few weeks and I'd say that we are in somewhat hype driven environment now. Rising spot is accelerating stocks, with ETF feedback loops and probably mass psychology buying through WSB, reddit aswell.
2. Many might think that is uranium a worthy investment opportunity still, after 100s and 1000s% of gains?
The fundamentals behind uranium price discovery are like no other.A commodity we need, has no substitutes, and even after the spot has risen +50% in matter of weeks...
3. ...it still cannot be mined and produced profitably with current price. The investment case in uranium is truly an unique opportunity.
1/9 It's not time yet for a return, but I had to peek in and congratulate the #uranium community. I have been semiactive on my long perspective trading during the twitter hibernation period. Most likely I will never ever achieve these level of gains again in my portfolio.
2/9 It's good to enjoy, but never let it define your plan. You were smart to invest in #uranium, but there are two hard parts of the journey still ahead.
3/9 First. ONLY profit there is, is a realized profit. For the coming years ahead you should have a plan to sell, and realize the profit you've made on #uranium.
When the YTD consolidation period of #uranium stocks unravels, I'm betting on a high momemtum move. Odds are we're getting a commodity price rerate period, which will cause stocks to start discounting +65$/lbs into the share price. Stocks lead the price, and have risk discount...
...which is why they might seem to have a LOT of upside to fair valuation with commodity price at +65$/lbs. They do, if the risk will be mitigated. My fair guess is the spot will exceed last great bull cycle highs, and duration of the cycle will also exceed the last one.
No one will time the bottom and the top right. Be prepared and have an exit plan on your uranium equities. There is a fair chance that spot will overrun the equities at the end, thus making physical investment vehicles like $U and $YCA good places to cycle profits in.
Let's take a look on $UEX price action history from the last great #uranium bull market.
Note how any discounts(1) to 50 & 200dEMA would have been affordable to buy until the spot started dying.
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When a #uranium stock moves, it tends to stay above its means, pushing extension to mean(2) very high, in case of $UEX all the way to 80-120% premium vs 50dEMA.
3/7
At the start of the trend the 20 day volume of the stock (3) increased substantially but as the trend matures, the 20d volume stays in the range of 1-1.5M shares, with only one overshoot on the way.