Thread by @VincentFoucher

A thread on recent events in Sambisa. There are some reasons to think #ISWAP has largely prevailed for now in the struggle that broke out in August with malcontent #JASDJ groups who refused to rally. #BokoHaram

A 15-minute ISWAP video has been circulating for a few days, which discusses the issue of the JASDJ dissenters. The video comprises of four segments.

First, there is a short extract by Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi, the official spokesperson of the Islamic State, taken from a speech he made after Shekau’s death. The extract chosen welcomes the victory of ISWAP over the “khawarij”, the “extremists”.

Second, there is combat footage showing the capture of JASDJ dissenters. Third, some of the dissenters are made to give their name and indicate their markaz (base, centre) of affiliation, either a toponym or the name of their qaid. This indicates a variety of affiliations.

There is no indication about the fate of the captives but as the final segment makes clear, ISWAP is still hoping all JASDJ dissenters will join them, so it is probable they did not execute these captives.

Last comes the lengthiest part of the vid, a speech in Hausa (with no Arab translation) by a masked man with a gun. This is reportedly “Okacha”, an important figure in ISWAP as he was (and maybe still is) the head of the rijal amn – the military police/secret service of ISWAP.

Okacha was one of the key leaders involved in the push into Sambisa. He refers to the recent events – the takeover of the Sambisa, the negotiations that followed, that everyone seemed to be happy with.

“We sat with your scholars and your leaders you were gathered and the truth was explained to you which you heard and accepted by paying your allegiance to the Khalifa of Islam and you made a promise”.

He confirms the existence of a deal after Shekau's death: ISWAP "left everything that [the JASDJ members] own to [them], including [their] leadership and the administration of [their] people "

But then, the JASDJ dissenters reverted to killing and terrorising innocent Muslim civilians and stealing from them. Some dissenters even left the Sambisa forest.

He insists that dissenters get the benefit of the doubt this time around, but that they have to “repent” and join ISWAP. “next time, you are not going to be given any excuse”

This is clearly a video for circulation in the Lake Chad region, to make clear to other JASDJ members that the Caliph backs ISWAP & that dissenters should repent or be captured/killed.

More broadly, it does look like ISWAP, which was challenged from August by a variety of JASDJ loyalists both in Lake Chad and in Sambisa, has prevailed for now, at least in the Sambisa.

Tellingly, it has reverted to normal activities – the brutal ambush against the Nigerian military in Gasarwa, attacks on power lines… And more JASDJ associates are surrendering to the Nigerian military.