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Kelly Brown Profile picture
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24 Sep, 3 tweets, 4 min read
Correcting @HeartInstitute myo'itis study w/proper Ottawa vax data:

2nd Dose Myo Rate = 1 in ~22,750
BUT
Moderna = 1 in ~11,750
(6x > Pfizer at 1 in ~71,200)
⬆️not age stratified (higher in male & 18-24!)

Consistent w @PublicHealthON!
2nd dose Moderna 1 in 3,800 18-24 male👇
You can clearly see @sharon_kirky / @nationalpost likely did not review the detailed Ottawa dose data, usefully broken down by 1st/2nd doses & by Moderna/Pfizer. Simply stating aggregate ~830k doses vs. 32 myo cases (1 in 26,000) misinforms the public; the data is more nuanced !!
While @HeartInstitute made a big error in its denominator calculation, @sharon_kirky and @nationalpost do not appreciate that the aggregate data (32 cases and 830,000 doses) needs to be broken down in to 1st/2nd dose, Pfizer/Moderna, and age stratified.

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Kelly Brown Profile picture
21 Aug
Toronto Ontario
Neighbourhood Vax Rates vs. Socio-Demographic Factors

- 1st doses consistent across city
- 2nd doses; different story

Ex. #1. Neighbourhoods with more non-Asian "visible minorities" have less 2nd dose take-up.

Vax passports disproportionately affect minorities!
#2. Neighbourhoods with more services industry workers (foodservice/accommodation/retail/other services) also have less 2nd dose take-up.

Quite counter-intuitive!

Why would @epdevilla think that employer vax-mandates would be welcomed ??
#3. Looking deeper, calculating a 2nd dose “take-up rate” (2nd doses divided by 1st doses) for each neighbourhood we see that neighbourhoods with a HIGHER proportion of non-Asian visible minorities are strongly correlated with LOWER 2nd dose take-up rates.
Read 6 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
18 Aug
1/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:

According to Ontario data, for those 50+, unvax’d cases, partially vax’d cases and breakthrough cases *all have ~THE SAME hospitalization/death rates*

This seems inconsistent with the notion that breakthrough cases have less severe outcomes.
2/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:

While unvax'd cases/hosps/deaths appear more prevalent (both total & per 100k), Ontario doesn’t publish *testing data* or *testing protocol* by vax'd/unvax'd.

Its unknown if C19 surveillance protocol is affecting case/hosp/death prevalence!
3/ Dr. Kieran Moore, please clarify:

Example: in the last 6 wks, 50+ unvax'd case hospitalization rates have *more than doubled* vs. the consistent ~12% for the whole pandemic.

Could the sudden jump from 12% to 27% be due to relatively more hospital testing of unvax'd patients?
Read 5 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
28 Jun
1/ Grab some coffee

The “3rd wave” of C19 was LESS DEADLY than the “2nd wave”..

In-hospital fatality rates for Toronto patients:
2nd wave: 27%
3rd wave: 14%

The 3rd wave produced ~the same # of hospitalizations as the 2nd wave (~4,000), but just ~HALF the deaths (602 vs 1,054)
2/
The stark wave-to-wave in-hospital fatality rate differences is most pronounced when assessing only NON-INTUBATED patients (90% of all hospitalizations, ICU+ward):

2nd wave: 23%
3rd wave: 11%

(less than HALF!)
3/
Looking at the data another way, for NON-INTUBATED patients, the daily # of admissions in the 3rd wave was 55% HIGHER than the 2nd wave, yet the daily fatalities was 28% LOWER… (see bottom two charts)
Read 12 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
27 Apr
This past weekend, @DonaldWelsh16 was targeted by his local community newspaper for expressing on Twitter his anxieties about the actions and tendencies of our public health advisors. Donald is a concerned citizen, and was undeserving of a smear. 🧵
lfpress.com/news/local-new…
The newspaper zeroed in on Donald recalling the early origins of the holocaust. That is of course a sensitive point of comparison (extremely mildly put) and he has since apologized and deleted the tweets in question. Here is his follow-up thread:
Apart from this parallel, the @LFPRess appears to have had no interest Donald’s message. Donald is, quite simply, a concerned citizen (& experienced scientist), who like so many see a devolution & regression in public health’s abandonment of western procedures for something else.
Read 12 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
7 Apr
1/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE
*This is not a tangential issue*
It directly impacts ICU narrative:

CCSO (live ICU) vs. CCM (gov’t patient database) continue to *DIVERGE MATERIALLY*
CCSO vs. CCM differ 3-fold!

@CriticalCareON & @publicHealthON must clarify:
2/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

CCSO daily new C-19 admissions are now almost FORTY-FIVE PERCENT (~45%) of new C-19 hospitalizations

A rising trend since Feb 1st, up from a range in the mid-20%s thru the winter wave

And 3X higher than CCM data (still in a consistent 10-20% band).
3/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

Note that for the entire pandemic, the national average of ICU admissions to total hospitalizations has been ~17.5%, according to PHAC weekly updates.

45% of new hospital admits being ICU admits is a massive statistical divergence!
Read 8 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
30 Mar
A cherry-picked stat is creating a media frenzy.

- A 50% ⬆️ in % of ICU admits in "younger people" vs. Dec is driven MOSTLY by admits in the 50-59 cohort!

- Yes, some ⬆️ in # of 49&U admits. BUT, the Ontario Science Table should know:

TWO data points DO NOT make a trend👇
2/
The data in the Toronto Database (as of Mar 22) are abundantly clear:

There were just FIVE (5) Toronto residents 49 & Under in ICU (1 39 & U), down from 12 as of Dec 21/’20

The next weekly Toronto database update is tomorrow, and I will update if there is a material change.
3a/

Related: an Important data note/inquiry for CCSO (@criticalcareON) & @PublicHealthON:

There appears wide divergence in ICU admits between (i) PubHealth Ontario’s Case & Contact Management (CCM) database and (ii) the CCSO data. (The Toronto data cited above is from the CCM).
Read 7 tweets

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