Thread by @pmdfoster

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Can Boris Johnson change the face of Britain?

Don’t dismiss the idea — he could be in power for a decade, and has big plans. But does he have the chops to deliver?

Major five part ⁦@FT series all this week. Stay with me/1

ft.com/content/709b8d…

@FT It's easy to dismiss @BorisJohnson but do so at your peril...he's a political alchemist and opportunist, who wins 80 seat majorities when no-one thought that was possible.

But the first two years of his premiership have been sucked up by #Brexit and #Covid-19. But what now?/2

@FT @BorisJohnson Recall the dreadful "levelling up" speech last July that everyone trashed on left and right that, as one senior Tory tells me and @GeorgeWParker was delivered because “the PM just wanted to say something — anything — about levelling up” /3

gov.uk/government/spe…

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker There was a kernel of the big "levelling up" -- idea that “for too many people, geography turns out to be destiny” -- but it was lost in a list of tired and tokenistic ideas, like £50m for football pitches.

But as we come out of #Brexit and #COVID19 can he deliver? /4

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker Because as @MichaelBarber9 -- who just spend six months with Johnson helping them set up a delivery unit -- tells me, there is an effort on going to stop governing by spasm (like that speech) and start governing by routine - working strategically to deliver three big priorities/5

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 - net zero and the green industrial revolution;

- getting people back to work with the right skills;

- recovering pandemic-hit public services

...that, when **combined together** can level up the country. And that's the hard part/6

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 As @jillongovt tells us, these are "whole of government" decisions, confronting a government that - so far - has been the wonky shopping trolley that Dominic Cummings described...with Johnson, as one senior Tory who worked for Thatcher, like "Billy Bunter in the tuck shop"/7

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt The question now, say policy experts like @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord is whether Johnson and this No.10 administration want to do more than what @michaelgove calls "sugar rush" politics. Do the have the appetite to join the dots? /8

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove The ambitious aim, if Johnson has the stomach, says @AndrewCities must be to create a virtuous circle, where the new skills agenda drives the net zero agenda, which in turn reduces geographical inequalities...because it will disproportionately benefit areas that are behind/9

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities As @TorstenBell puts it “The easy option is to throw a load of money at high streets and towns and give it a proper noun...call it a ‘Boris Makeover’,” ...But that won’t do the trick if you want to close the gaps in productivity and educational attainment.”  /10

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities It will be hard this will be, but as one of Johnson's most senior policy experts tells us, there are political drivers here. “People will want to see better transport connections, better high streets and signs that there are bigger changes on the way.” /11

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities Because as @michaelgove said in his Ditchley Foundation lecture last year, the ambition is huge -- nothing short of FDR New Deal to help the "forgotten man" (showing if nothing else that the 'left behind' concept is as old as politics itself.)/12

gov.uk/government/spe…

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities Johnson might be easily scoffed at, but those who understand him also don't write him off.

They to his recent move to raise taxes to fund Social Care as fledgling evidence of where he has been prepared to take a tough decision /13

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities And see today's @FT splash...by @bethanstaton @GeorgeWParker and me...on plans to lower salary point at which graduates start to repay loans. A policy clearly designed to get more people to consider FE courses. Another sign of intent? /14

ft.com/content/f77fe7…

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities @bethanstaton The next few months will be crucial, particularly as as Johnson will be buffetted around by fuel crisis, labour shortages, Covid and NHS...but as @MichaelBarber9 says, Johnson will need to stay disciplined and focus on his priorities. And systems are being built for that/15

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities @bethanstaton In the next month or two there is going to be a spending review; a levelling up white paper, key documents on Net Zero....all of which will provide signposts to the level of Johnson's seriousness, to which road he's going to take. Sugar rush or slog it out?/16

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities @bethanstaton Because as Barber says in his latest "deliverology" tome, Accomplishment, there are always "implementation dips" between good policies emerging, and them delivering change.

The government's communications, currently reactive and scattergun, need to change to have any hope/17

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities @bethanstaton But as @jameskirkup of the Social Market Foundation says, even putting UK on road to Net Zero and making Lifelong learning work, will be serious changes. “He won’t go down in history as Attlee,” he says, “but he’ll be able to say he built things that can last.” /18

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities @bethanstaton @jameskirkup This will be hard. And it won't be helped by the divided politics of #Brexit and disenchantment that Johnson and Gove preyed on in order to win power in the first place. Tough decision require politicians to "level with" their public sometimes, which is hard if you never have/19

@FT @BorisJohnson @GeorgeWParker @MichaelBarber9 @jillongovt @TorstenBell @RyanShorthouse @Will_Tanner @timbolord @michaelgove @AndrewCities @bethanstaton @jameskirkup But there was also a promise implicit in the destruction of the old establishment, that it would create better lives for the “forgotten man”.

As we'll examine in five pieces this week, it still could. But creation will prove harder than destruction.  ENDS