Thread by @SlawomirDebski

This is👇a good representation of 🇫🇷 perspective by great ⁦@SylvieKauffmann⁩
My 2 related cents:
In the 21st century what defines the power status is i.a the number of allies a state has, but also its ability to mobilize their support quickly.🧵 1/9 nytimes.com/2021/09/22/opi…

So in theory after Brexit France is significantly stronger than the UK – as potentially it can mobilize allies from the EU quicker, while the UK doesn’t have this luxury anymore – and its allies are first and foremost America’s allies 2/9

However, France “lost” the submarine case to #AUKUS, because in the Pacific it appeared to be alone. The EU has been nowhere around. The submarine contract wasn’t an European endeavour, but solely a French one, in spite of ex-post claims by French politicians 3/9

That’s why French (and American) allies in Europe admittedly sympathize with Paris but  - aside from rhetoric pleasing to French ears – they aren’t too keen to sacrificing their own relations with Washington, to unequivocally side with France to seek for revenge 4/9

An important conclusion can be drawn from this situation, and it pertains to the growing US-China rivalry. Alliances, like machineries, demand ‘lubrication’. Otherwise they stop working and cannot be relied upon (mobilise quickly), when need arises 5/9

Neither France nor the UK have their very “own” allies in Europe. They rather share allies with the US. Without constant effort to make it possible to mobilize those states when needed, the UK and France should not be overconfident in their power status 6/9

But this applies also to the US! America too, cannot assume automatic support from its European allies for its policy toward China. Not, when US officials talk only about “pivots” to Indo-Pacific and withdrawal from Europe 7/9

Hence, to safeguard its power status, also the US must strike a balance between its focus on China/Indo-Pacific and remaining a force, fully engaged for peace and stability on the Old Continent 8/9

Failure in this regard may prejudge the result of US-China rivalry. As @ElbridgeColby pointed out, China doesn’t have to convince Europe to take its side in order to gain advantage over the US. A neutral Europe, keeping equidistance, is more than enough for China to succeed. END