Thread by @marcdaalder

We are now suppressing the virus, which means a goal of keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed by #Covid19 patients rather than reaching zero cases. But there are three major threats to the success of our new approach:
newsroom.co.nz/prepare-for-th… #nzpol #Covid19nz

The first is outbreaks in unvaccinated or under-vaccinated populations, like children (not yet eligible) or Māori and Pasifika. It's no coincidence that the 11 district and city council areas with the greatest proportion of Māori residents are also among the 15 least vaccinated.

The second risk is that our hardworking public health teams may not be able to keep up with widespread community transmission. Public health officials will be the backbone of our suppression strategy, but they have not been resourced sufficiently throughout the pandemic.

The third risk is that, by the time we see the warning signs of an overwhelmed hospital system, it's too late to avert the crisis. We have so little ICU capacity that even a slight uptick in intensive care patients should send alarms blaring and trigger new restrictions.

We may well successfully suppress the virus and vaccinate our way into a slightly freer life without suffering the mass death that so many other countries have. But this new approach has greater risks than elimination did - and frankly fewer rewards.

That the goal is now "don't overwhelm hospitals" rather than "reap the freedoms of Level 1" is telling. Maybe ending up here was inevitable, but it's hard to escape the sense that we could have done so much more prep, from hospital capacity to vaccinating the vulnerable and more.

For 18 months, we have - almost uniquely in the world - lived life like there was no pandemic. That's now over.