Thread by @harrovanasselt

📢New article alert! What does international law say about leaving #fossilfuels in the ground to meet the #ParisAgreement #climate goals? And how could it evolve to do so? I explore these questions in a new #OpenAccess article in @ESG_Journal sciencedirect.com/science/articl…🧵

Some background: as a recent @Nature piece by @st_pye & others shows, if we want to keep below 1.5C, large parts of fossil fuel reserves (oil: 58%, gas: 59%, coal: 89%) are 'unextractable' nature.com/articles/s4158… (2/n)

This message also emerges from the annual #ProductionGap report (heads up: the next one is coming in 2 weeks!) by @SEIclimate @IISD_news @UNEP & others: we need to start winding down production *now* to keep global #climate goals within reach @mlaz_sei @_aploy @SEI_Erickson (3/n)

Some governments have begun to act through adopting 'supply-side climate policies' targeting #fossilfuel production to complement emission reduction policies, thereby starting to 'cut with both arms of the scissors' @fergusgreen @RDNS_TAI link.springer.com/article/10.100… (4/n)

And some countries have now also begun to explore international cooperation, with the launch of the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance (#BOGA) by 🇨🇷 &🇩🇰 at #COP26 a major new development beyondoilandgasalliance.com (5/n)

But what does existing international law actually tell us about #fossilfuel production in light of #climate goals? My article looks at international #climate, #humanrights & #investment law. Spoiler alert: the guidance is both unclear and incoherent (6/n)

Though the #ParisAgreement fails to mention #fossilfuels, its long-term goals & the need for #NDCs to reflect the 'highest possible ambition' arguably lead to a due diligence obligation to wind down #fossilfuel production (& its financial support) priceofoil.org/content/upload… (7/n)

On #humanrights, reports by @SREnvironment & other Special Procedures & recommendations by treaty bodies offer useful guidance on what states should do about #fossilfuel production & may exert some influence at the national level, but fall short of being legally binding (8/n)

Investment law (e.g. #EnergyCharterTreaty) can hinder a #fossilfuel phaseout by giving investors an avenue to challenge supply-side climate policies, as @KylaTienhaara @LCotula @MartinBrauch & others have warned us pubs.iied.org/17660iied (9/n)

In short, there is no clear obligation for states to wind down #fossilfuel production (or clarity on how to do so) & the signals from different bodies of international law are at odds w/ each other. How to move away from this (unsatisfactory) status quo? (10/n)

Though answers to this question will no doubt vary, existing principles of int'l (environmental) law, including prevention of harm, (intra- & inter-generational) equity & respect for #humanrights can inform the contents of an international law of #leavingitintheground (11/n)

To realise this vision, cooperation through small coalitions like #BOGA could be pursued in parallel to reforms in existing international agreements, e.g. including supply-side policies and information in #NDCs and #LTLEDS under the #ParisAgreement tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108… (12/n)

This could lay the foundation for more fundamental reforms, such as a @fossiltreaty to achieve a fair and orderly #fossilfuel phaseout, as proposed by @PeterJNewell_ @AndrewSimms_uk tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… (13/n)

Will any of this be easy? Heck no. But the disconnect between #climate goals & #fossilfuel production plans will need to be confronted & international lawyers should explore how international law could help to stay within #PlanetaryBoundaries @Prof_DFrench @KotzeProfessor (14/n)

The article is part of a Special Issue on #EarthSystemLaw. I'm grateful to guest editors @ca_blanchard @RakhyunKim @KotzeProfessor for their patience & guidance. Check the other articles by @MariePetersmann @_Laura_Mai @BoulotEmille @JoshGellers too! sciencedirect.com/journal/earth-… (end)