Thread by @CalibreObscura

[THREAD] As a idiot and not as an Analyst™ I think that whilst it's important that emphasising that current IS activity in Afghanistan doesn't represent a sudden increase in capability; it's more important to consider a possible trajectory of the insurgency.

If what we see at present is the activation (and rejuvenation via hundreds of escapees) of preexisting Islamic State networks across the country; then it is obviously right to be fearful for the people of Afghanistan. That does not translate into a wider danger (yet).

If the question is just how sophisticated their insurgency can be, then we don't have to look far. These are the same people that carried out complex operations such as the Jalalabad Jailbreak in 2019, the PBIED in the Taliban funeral a few days ago, etc.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1290402674291212291

I think what we're seeing is a consequence of the destruction of the territorial caliphate in Afg & adoption of a new strategy that started way before the TB takeover; use of long-time stomping grounds as support zones, deployment of small&dedicated urban cells, hub & spoke C&C.

IS can take advantage of areas of support (Kunar/Nangahar/etc) to transfer ez available men/materiel (Influx of new weps certainly helps)/funds into areas where it can shatter the "Taliban Peace", which TB so badly desires.

Shown to be *very* coordinated.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1432247033532985346

Unfortunately, it seems many have taken Taliban confidence at face value, and that the atrocities starting to occur are blending into the 20 year conflict as usual. Local dynamics here are very important- there is plenty that both sides are not claiming.

https://twitter.com/NagiNajjar/status/1446443836897513473

1 thing I doubt is large scale defections of Taliban to IS-K (even tho there's target constituencies, Kunari footsoldiers come to mind). Seems that atm Taliban compromises haven't caused enough of a stir. Killing random salafis is liable to radicalise tho.

https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1446395383463153666

Seems likely that the current IS pattern of ops will continue; do think there is a possibility of pauses/disruptions as the TB will disrupt their cells.

But they've prepped & will soon move to more significant moves; both sectarian & "show stoppers"

Is there a real threat outside of Afghanistan? Seems a little early. That said, ExOps aren't a new thing to IS-K, with a credible plot foiled only in Spring 2020 (ctc.usma.edu/the-april-2020…) and credible links to the 2019 Sri Lanka bombings.

If I was a regional state, I would be concerned about Afghanistan being a viable choice for extremists to travel to, become trained, armed, and then be sent back to their countries to form urban attack networks there along the lines of the "mother ship".

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1372944186467573762

I stand by my opinions that regional states are to be most concerned abt IS-K; in many ways this "stage" of ops resembles Iraq in the mid-early 2000s. We know that IS lacks support base for a sustained traditonal insurgency à la the Taliban; but Afgh. can certainly be an enabler.

As always, take nothing I say seriously.