Prof @PhilipNolan_MU on @TodaywithClaire “we are not surprised, it was a possibility… we have had this “event” where cases went from 1100 to 1600/day.. it’s rapidly evolving.. the first indication was last Friday (from Wed swabs) & positivity % has increased” #Covid19
“Proportionally more infections are middle age & older adults now.. & requiring hospitalisation”
“we are unlikely to see major surge (due to vaccination).. but it’s on a knife edge” ..“we need to encourage & support vaccination”..2/3 in ICU are unvaccinated”
“we don’t know if this is a transient event or a step change that will stay at new level.. we are worried given (high) positivity rate” ... “vaccines offer 90% protection against hospitalisation”
“optimal level is everyone protected by vaccination,but we have to take additional precautions to prevent spread of disease..it is also spreading through ~vaccinated~ population..leaving home w/ symptoms is dangerous” ..”at beginning last week we had no signal of wrong direction”
“vaccines are doing heavy lifting.. the balance seems to have tilted wrong way.. it wouldn’t take much for us as individuals to bring it back (down).. is it growing, a step change or transient? We simply don’t know, it depends what has influenced “behaviour”.. it needs more data”
“disease unlikely to get out of control as it did last Oct.. we are not at that point now.. it’s hard for disease to move quickly with (high levels) of vaccination.. indicators are going in wrong direction, but we are not sure how long it will last..not at risk of out of control”

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More from @Orla_Hegarty

12 Oct
#Housing #Budget2022
Headline: “a budget package for 2022 of just under €6bn”
gov.ie/en/press-relea…
CAPITAL (“on-off” investment, new-build & purchases) €4.1bn
- €2.6bn Exchequer
- €1.5bn LDA (Land Development Agency) & HFA (Housing Finance Agency)

CURRENT (on- going spending, leases, rent supports, etc) €1.4bn
“11,820 new homes to be added to supply of social housing through build, acquisition & leasing, with focus on new build (9,000 homes)”
..unclear how many direct build (good value for money), acquisition (vfm in low demand locations only), & leasing (very poor vfm)
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep
(reverse engineering)

If Ireland expect 90% vaccinated or IMMUNE BY INFECTION within 4 wks.. & few remain to be vaccinated

What is 15% ‘top up’ to 90% immunity?

Is it exposing children to #COVID19, which is unscientific, unsafe & unethical?

But if not that, what is the 15%?
(rough maths)
about 150,000 people tested positive in last 6 months (<3% of population)

..it’s not credible that another 600,000 (12%) people had COVID without testing positive since end March ‘21

..& that this 600,000 are ALL among 125,000 unvaccinated (25% of population)
(not an epidemiologist) am I missing something here? Thanks @dazult_pdempsey @CHeDS_ie @StuartDNeilson @andrewflood @RiochtConor2 @BrianFlanagan1 @LouisWu1992
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
🇮🇪 Ireland 📈#Covid19 cases rising in <15 children is out of step with Europe

🇧🇪 Belgium 📉
🇳🇱 Netherlands 📉
🇪🇸 Spain📉
🇩🇪 Germany📉
🇫🇷 France📉
🇵🇹 Portugal📉
🇩🇰 Denmark 📉

🇬🇧 UK rising 📈 with no precautions in schools (image: @ReicherStephen) Image
Ireland & UK hotspots with very high case numbers
🇮🇪 Ireland 263/ million (7 day avg)

🇧🇪Belgium 170
🇳🇱Netherlands 105
🇪🇸Spain 52
🇩🇪Germany 94
🇫🇷France 96
🇵🇹Portugal 73
🇩🇰 Denmark 59

🇬🇧UK 484
(image: @OurWorldInData ) Image
More Europe (cases/million, 7 day avg)

🇮🇹 Italy 61
🇨🇭Switzerland 168
🇦🇹 Austria 184
🇵🇱 Poland 19
🇨🇿 Czechia 40
🇳🇴 Norway 126
🇸🇪 Sweden 62
🇫🇮 Finland 71
🇬🇷 Greece 216

.. Ireland second highest (after UK) & cases 2.5x EU average new daily cases Image
Read 4 tweets
13 Sep
🇮🇪 #Covid19 It’s been one year since the LongForgottenDublinPandemicExperimentOf2020™️

If we had paid attention, 2021 could have been much, much better. Here’s why..

[we didn’t learn, but it’s never too late!] 1/ Our World in Data graph of Covid-19 cases in Ireland March 2
On 13 Sept 2020 the national 7-day average was 187 cases/day (it’s currently 1,300 almost 7 times amount)

In context of summer 2020, there were concerns. So govt brought in new restrictions ~for Dublin only~

Most significant was a ban on indoor dining & pubs ~in Dublin only~ 2/ Graph of 2020 cases
[+ an inter-county travel ban, limits on gatherings, closure of museums, & limits on some other not-so-high risk activities]

Most significant difference between Dublin & the Rest of Ireland was that indoor dining & pubs were open outside Dublin 3/
assets.gov.ie/87604/405b1065…
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
(rough maths)
HEPA filtration €400 per classroom is < weekly cost of 1 contact tracer

We pay *900* contact tracers

HEPA for EVERY classroom ~as permanent protection for EVERY variant, virus & pollution~ would cost <6 more months of 900 contact tracers
irishexaminer.com/news/arid-4069…
(rough maths #2)

HEPA for EVERY classroom would be < cost of hospitalising 1,800 children (for average 1 week each)

1,800 schoolchildren is the number that would be expected to be hospitalised if 1 in 4 of all schoolchildren were infected in the coming months (0.25%)
(rough maths #3)

HEPA filtration for EVERY classroom as permanent protection would cost less than the *increase* in funding to horse & greyhound racing this year (up from €84m to €96m in 2021)
rte.ie/sport/racing/2…
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
#Covid19 Children & managing class outbreaks

🇫🇷 France: full class isolate

🇮🇹 Italy: full class isolate

🇪🇸Spain: full class isolate

🇮🇪 Ireland: isolation of ‘close contacts’ if not vaccinated

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: no isolation of any under 18s for any reason
🇫🇷 France #schools “masks, mandatory from age 6.. classrooms regularly ventilated… In primary schools, if one child tests positive, class will close for 7 days.. In high schools children positive & not vaccinated placed into isolation for at least 1 week” amp.france24.com/en/france/2021…
🇮🇹 Italy ‘masks for everyone aged over six, staggered entrance/exit times, quarantine rules for classes with positive cases & some classes taught online, depending on the health situation in local area’ thelocal.it/20210831/expla…
Read 10 tweets

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