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Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
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15 Oct, 8 tweets, 3 min read
It is ok to wait for confirmation. It is ok not to predict but get more info. from the chart itself and act.

This was when I concluded the breakout is valid and symmetrical triangle is completed. $BTC

Chart patterns are confirmed when they are mature. It is usually difficult to understand at what level the pattern is mature. For me this is with several tests of pattern boundary.

First reversal signal on $BTC was covered with this setup.

Rising wedge breakdown was followed by a rebound which formed the right shoulder of a H&S top. The correction towards 30K was covered with this chart pattern setup.

Let the market give clues to the direction of the trend. We don't want to predict.

At some point you will not have a clue about what the price is trying to do.

Then the boundaries of a consolidation will become clear. At that point you start getting a feel for the price action.

End of day closes are always important. Know what you are looking for.

You can get support from candlestick patterns between well-defined boundaries.

Same principles will apply between chart pattern boundaries. Support & Resistance.

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Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
14 Oct
I'm not in the business of picking tops and bottoms. I will never short an index like this.

However, I'm in the business of identifying extremes relative to past price actions.

#INDIA benchmarks are taking a parabolic shape with consecutive gap openings. #SENSEX #NIFTY
Question I'm trying to answer, what are those gaps at all-time highs???

From Richard Schabacker:
I think we can narrow it down to continuation & exhaustion gaps.
Read 4 tweets
Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
14 Oct
This is considered Type 2 breakout. (Explained in following videos).

Irrespective of time frame (note I don't analyze intraday price action), price dynamics are the same. Breakouts can be followed by pullbacks and those would ideally find support at the previous resistance.
Piyasada birileri..., dis gucler, soros, vs. gibi inanclari olan arkadaslar icin Isvec borsasinda islem goren bir hissenin grafigini paylasiyorum.

Piyasadaki o "birileri" ne atfedilen hareketler aslinda kolletif olarak toplu suru piskolojisi/insan davranislarindan kaynaklaniyor
Reference to earlier tweet on the price dynamics of a Type 2 breakout.
Read 4 tweets
Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
3 Oct
Are you ready for a visual exercise?
Qualities we will be looking for:

1) A clean horizontal boundary

2) Min 3 tests of the pattern boundary

3) If a short trade = needs to be below 200-day
If a long trade = needs to be above 200-day
Find 3 text-book trades / chart pattern setups

This is a weekly scale price chart and the moving average is 40 week period (200-day)

Answers format:
Pattern name/completed year
Read 6 tweets
Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
3 Oct
Define a research universe 500, 1000 names... depends on your time dedicated for market research each day & weekend.

Make sure you go through the same list every single day.

What you miss earlier you might capture later.

You see the development of price charts better
Open each chart with the same template. Don't go into style drift by saying: Hmm.. let me see what X indicator is doing or let me go into hourly chart etc.

You have 1hr (or how much it takes to finish the list you have built) to finish the work and move off the screen.
Before you finalize, see if any pattern fit your criteria. Save those to a separate folder and review them the next day first thing after the market close. That's your watchlist.
Read 5 tweets
Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
3 Oct
Weekends are dedicated for the review of weekly scale price charts.
After the close of each trading day, review the end of day charts.

After the close of each trading week, review the end of week charts.

Repeat this for a month and you will develop a routine to review markets/patterns.
Since 2007, I've been doing this every single day/week/month.

Finding opportunities has become one of the best part of trading business.
Read 4 tweets
Aksel Kibar, CMT Profile picture
23 Sep
(1) Let's study this chart and discuss some of the concepts in classical charting & technical analysis. It is a great chart. Image
(2) Symmetrical triangle formed right below the 200-day average. Breakout took place at the same price level which I call inflection point. When such condition is met, it is a high conviction setup for me.
(3) Breakout took place with a gap opening. This was a clear breakaway gap as explained by Schabacker.

Breakout took place above the 200-day average and it was a change in trend as well. A significant technical development.
Read 4 tweets

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