How did Bush win NC's four most populous counties in 2000? What did they look like? —
After Clinton lost NC twice, natl Dems conceded it for 2000. Vote changing + migration + better organizing got results like Wake County moving from Leans R to Safe D curiouscat.qa/JMilesColeman/…
Forgot I had this too, which shows the same thing. "Only" a Dem +16% map looks pretty tame now.
CRYSTAL BALL: Some takeaways from what we have so far of the #NYC primary, notes on #IASen, and a few polling observations. From me, @kkondik, and @ParakramKarnik.
To be clear, the "Second Place" map isn't a "second preference" map -- we won't know that for a while, but I thought it would still be interesting to look at.
This first point is probably the most stereotypical Election Twitter acknowledgement I’ve ever put on a map.
Since it's relevant tonight, one of my favorite political documentaries -- '14 Women', about the women in the Senate in 2005/2006 -- is on YouTube.
A big part of the documentary was about Sen. Landrieu's work on hurricane recovery -- this was shortly after Katrina. Here she is giving Lincoln and Cantwell a tour. She wanted to make sure as many members as possible saw the destruction.
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)
Q in my inbox: How would [insert area] vote?
Me: Well, here's the 2020 breakdown.
Twitter: How can you treat politics like a game like that!?
Are there people on here who do go a bit far with the 'game' aspect? Yes. But let's not pretend looking at the breakdowns/trends of an area can't be informative.
Some of us treat being interested in #s and wanting to help people as being mutually exclusive.
Like, I've had some people who work on campaigns -- who's hearts are into it -- show me hypothetical redistricting maps that they've done, or stuff like that.
My first reaction wasn't "well, you're treating it like a sport here..."
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.