The divergence between the PMI signals of slower economic growth and steeper price pressures has presented a dilemma for policymakers. While the price gauges fuel calls for policy accommodation to be scaled back, the deteriorating output momentum calls for caution.
Importantly, watch the sub-indices from the forthcoming manufacturing PMIs in addition to the headline #PMI, as this is where the supply chain pressure signals – which will ultimately steer inflation – will be found. Read more about these sub-indices at bit.ly/3G1v2Rf
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UK growth is looking increasingly lop-sided, however, with the upturn led by the services sector, and consumer-facing and hospitality firms in particular driving the expansion for a third month running. In contrast, manufacturing saw production growth slide to near-stagnation.
While the service sector continued to benefit from the opening up of the economy, factories have been besieged by a further worsening of supply chain delays and ongoing staffing issues, as well as falling exports and what appears to have been diversion of spend toward services.
While I was trying (in vain) to find petrol to drive my daughter to London for university tomorrow, a colleague who runs a laundry business told us how he was called to be informed that his lorry load of clean laundry had been deserted at a service station. His driver had been...
... having a break when someone offered to double his pay with a starting bonus if he'd drive for him. An offer too good to refuse, he simply went off leaving my friend in the lurch, a full lorry deserted in a service station. He had to scramble to get his property back. What ...
...an unscrupulous bunch of characters. What a mess this country seems to be in right now.
UK PMIs, including flash September data, charted against Bank of England policy decisions underscores how unusual the current economic situation is, with price pressures accelerating while growth slows. bit.ly/3nXx9in
The further acceleration of price growth will add to concerns that the recent bout of inflation is proving less transitory than many suspected,
but the slowdown in growth is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery while the pandemic remains a disruptive force on the economy.
UK #PMI data showed #construction activity slowing sharply in August. Given the amount of stimulus and relatively early stage in the recovery, to be slowing so close to the long-term trend is disappointing 1/4
Part of the slowdown can be linked to weaker growth of new orders for construction work, but as the chart shows, activity has slowed much more sharply than demand for new work, so there are other factors at play 2/4
Part of the slowdown is clearly linked to ongoing near-record #shortages of raw materials, as measured by suppliers' delivery times, which have in turn led to unprecedented price hikes for building materials in recent months 3/4
#Manufacturing#PMI survey data reveal how the UK’s exporters have underperformed their peers in the eurozone to the greatest extent for over two decades so far this year, i.e. since the end of the #Brexit transition period. bit.ly/3yfQGNc
UK suppliers of components in particular have seen only a marginal increase in export sales in the past six months, while similar firms in the eurozone, in contrast, has seen record export growth of component export sales.
This is itself an underperformance by UK suppliers of a degree never previously seen in at least 20 years of survey history
The US continued to lead the global economic rebound in June, according to flash PMI data from IHS Markit, but also showed signs of growth peaking from May’s record expansion.
The eurozone meanwhile was alone among the four largest developed world economies in seeing growth accelerate in June, while Japan fell into a deeper contraction amid emergency measures to curb COVID-19 infections.
While the US saw the strongest expansion, it also again reported by far the steepest increase in prices charged for goods and services, though unprecedented price pressures continued to mount in Europe