The #Protocol on IRL/NI was agreed 2 years ago, with a key objective of avoiding a hard @BorderIrish

But what has #Brexit been like for people living along the #border?

We @QUBSSESW @europe_icban @UKandEU investigated…
And our report is out today!
tinyurl.com/AfterBrexit
1/10 Cover of Border After Brexit report
This is our 4th QUB/ICBAN report since the 2016 referendum.

The study involved an online #survey of those living/working in the Central Border Region.

Our survey received c400 responses, equally spread either side of the border. There were also interviews & focus groups.

2/10
We are VERY grateful to each of the respondents to this survey.

It took a time to complete because we insisted on getting comments/views/examples…

And hence the report is another fairly hefty one, as the #Contents show.

The focus is on giving space/voice to respondents.

3/10 Contents pages of the report
Headline findings from the responses to the #survey – bearing in mind this is a large but not a representative sample – are as follows:

First, #Brexit is still seen as major topic of importance by 86% of our respondents -

It's a live & lived issue north & south.

4/10 Bar chart of results showing relative importance of Brexit t
And the impact of #Brexit has worse or much worse than expected for half our respondents, with only 14% saying it was better than they had feared.

This is notable cos we know from our previous QUB-ICBAN reports they expected it to be bad. 😬
(e.g. tinyurl.com/TheBorderIntoB…)

5/10 Pie chart showing impact of Brexit worse than expected for 1
And what has that impact been? This is where the comments come into their own.

Obvs, the experience of the #Protocol is a factor here too.

While respondents point to #economic effects, it's the consequences for #social & political relations they're most concerned about.

6/10 quotations from respondents on economic and social impacts
The greatest concerns expressed by respondents (from all backgrounds & both sides of the border) are for:
* political #stability in NI,
* North/South #cooperation, &
* #community relations in the border region.

This is reflected in what they feel most pessimistic about...

7/10 Chart showing most pessimism over good relations between com
Despite the #Protocol's purpose, over half our respondents believe that there might yet be a #hard Irish land #border.

A repeated theme is that of #uncertainty & instability – a sense that the poor UK-EU rel'ship & British-Irish tensions are having effect on the ground.

8/10 Chart showing 57% think there may be a hard Irish border in
To learn more detail on positive & negative views of Brexit/the Protocol, specific challenges for cross-border cooperation, the views of Leave-voters in the border region, the experience of EU migrant workers, the impact of Covid at the border...
👇👇
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-border-aft…
9/10
Meantime, this is evidence, if it were needed, for @DavidGHFrost & @MarosSefcovic that the talks they're having on the #Protocol are being watched nervously by those who far from London & Brussels, Dublin & Belfast, but who are still most directly affected by the outcome.

10/10

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More from @hayward_katy

2 Jul
My wee book on the Irish border is out!

Inc. Irish #borders of land, sea, mind, & (gawd 'elp us) tech

Endorsed by its subject, @BorderIrish 🤩
the most sound & stand-out social scientists & journalists in GB & Ireland 😍
& the Primate of All-Ireland 😇

us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/what…
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
So the #Protocol is the talk of the town today, but what do the people most affected by it actually think about it?!

We @PostBrexitGovNI thought that was worth finding out. So we’re running polls in NI with @LucidTalk 📊

Here’s the 2nd one –

qub.ac.uk/sites/post-bre…

1/8
HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.

47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.

What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.

Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.

2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.

This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇

41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
25 Jun
Why are post-Brexit N.Ireland politics so fraught?

There’s some illuminating data in @ARK_info NI Life&Times survey

We’ve asked Qs since 2016 on perceived impact of #Brexit on the prospect of Irish unification

This thread & @UKandEU blog explain:
ukandeu.ac.uk/northern-irela…

1/6
In 2016, a clear majority in NI thought #Brexit made no difference to likelihood of Irish unity or their views about it.

#Unionists didn’t want or expect it.

#Nationalists wanted it but didn’t expect it any time soon.

Those who were ‘Neither’ didn't think it changed much.

2/6
By end 2020, the majority in NI think #Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely.

Nationalists' expectations grew steeply over the 5 yrs

A less steep but similar trajectory for Neithers

Over 2020, i.e. post-WA, the largest proportion of unionists came to believe this too

3/6
Read 6 tweets
21 Apr
*POLLING!📊*
The NI/IRL #Protocol is a hot topic, at least in NI at the moment.

But we haven’t really known what people actually think about it… Until now!!

We've results of the 1st detailed opinion poll on the #Protocol for @PostBrexitGovNI project (give us a follow).

1/7
The poll used @LucidTalk opinion panel (thanks guys).

Weighted sample n.2156, margin of error -/+ 2-3%.

It’s the first of polls to be done every 4m for this @ESRC project led by @DPhinnemore @QUBelfast.

Poll conducted 24-28 March, so before unrest.

Headline results:
2/7
Overall we see strong divisions of opinion over the #Protocol.
Most think #Brexit is not a good thing for UK.
Most (2/3) respondents think NI needs particular arrangements through Brexit.
But then they're fairly split over whether the Protocol is appropriate or good.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
25 Feb
The DUP & ERG claim there's an alternative to the #Protocol: ‘Mutual enforcement’.

Whilst it is a clever name (implying cooperation+ tough action), in reality it is really not viable.
Here's a brief thread.

TLDR: 'taking back control' was so 2016.

1/6
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
The primary intention of this model is to see the #border for the movement of goods shift from the Irish Sea to the Irish land border.

But to keep that border ‘invisible’, it has UK&IRL authorities enforcing the rules of the other jurisdiction.
🪄

2/6
centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Leaving all other considerations aside, it has to address the cornerstones of border management👇

We can see that it fails on all of them, i.e. there is no border to speak of.

It claims to work by ‘inverting the usual approach to customs enforcement’. This is indeed true😬

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
7 Jan
A thread on the #Brexit dish of the day:
Article 16 of the NI/IRL #Protocol.

There’s momentum (👋@uuponline @duponline) gathering behind the idea that the UK Govt should trigger safeguard measures re: the Protocol.

(Yes, already)

Why so, & what might it do?
TL;DR: zilch

1/11
First, why the calls for it?
Well.
#Brexit means change to UK-EU trade, & the #Protocol means that that is taking effect down the Irish Sea.

There was too little time & too little info to prepare.

There are [wholly predictable] consequences.
🛃
2/11

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
Why invoke #Art16 of the Protocol?

It allows unilateral #safeguard measures - a common/necessary feature in trade agmts.

The purpose is to create a temporary breathing space in response to an unforeseen & sudden negative effect arising from the agmt.

Here's what it says👇
3/11 Image
Read 11 tweets

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